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Hey everyone, it’s Thursday, and FutureProof is back.
This week, AI cracks an 18-year-old maths problem in three days, Texas builds a solar farm on an old coal mine, Britain's favourite new cars are electric, and China's emissions take another encouraging turn.
Highlights this week:
The Stakes: Warming accelerates, climate commitments stagnate, and extreme weather outruns scientific predictions.
Climate: COP31 puts electrification centre stage, global emissions edge down, and China's emissions fall 3.1%.
AI: Models vary thirtyfold in energy consumption, AI cracks a maths conjecture, decodes DNA, and reimagines blood tests.
EVs: Electric cars displace 1.2 million barrels of oil daily, electric trucks clock 1,000km a day, and British and Australian EV sales soar.
Clean energy: Britain bets £12bn on offshore wind, while Texas turns coal mining land into a solar powerhouse.
Podcasts: Green building pioneer David Gottfried challenges conventional sustainability thinking, while Curtis Spencer explains how foreign trade zones can protect businesses from tariffs.
Plenty happening. Let’s get into it.
Interestingly, this week's common thread is the widening gap between political ambition and technological progress. Governments are struggling to accelerate climate action, yet electric vehicles, renewables and AI keep crossing thresholds that seemed distant just a few years ago. The future, it turns out, isn't waiting for permission.
The Stakes
The Stakes: The Planet Is Warming Nearly Twice as Fast. Climate Action Has Stalled.
As world leaders gather for COP31 in Antalya, reports paint a deeply uncomfortable picture: global warming is accelerating, climate commitments are stagnating, and some of the consequences are arriving faster than scientists anticipated. What frustrates me most is that we've never had better or cheaper tools to tackle this crisis, yet political inaction is squandering the opportunity.
Key highlights:
Warming has shifted into a higher gear. Scientists at the Potsdam Institute have confirmed that global warming has accelerated to around 0.35°C per decade, nearly double the rate between 1970 and 2015. At this pace, we'll breach the Paris Agreement's long-term 1.5°C threshold before 2030.
Five years of going nowhere. Climate Action Tracker finds that global climate progress has effectively stalled since 2020, with current policies putting us on course for 2.7°C of warming by 2100. The UN puts it at 2.8°C, with America's retreat from climate action making matters considerably worse.
Reality is outrunning some climate models. Extreme weather events are arriving sooner and hitting harder than anticipated in some regions. Europe's climate-related economic losses in 2026 alone are projected to reach €85 billion, while drought has disrupted shipping through the Panama Canal, Rhine and Danube.
Why This Matters: Every fraction of a degree we prevent means fewer lives lost, less economic damage and more time to adapt, overshooting 1.5°C is a reason to accelerate climate action, not abandon it.
Kismet: Global clean energy investment is now twice that of fossil fuels - a reminder that the economics of decarbonisation are increasingly working in our favour, even when the politics aren't. 👉 Links Inline
Climate
COP31: Electrify Everything (If We Can Find the Money)
COP31 has opened in Antalya with diminished political ambitions, a distinctly unhelpful absence of US federal leadership, and one rather promising idea: electrify as much of the global economy as possible. I'm particularly encouraged by this shift - electrification is increasingly an economic and energy security imperative, regardless of where governments stand on climate policy.
Key highlights:
Climate finance pledges plunge 70%. New and continuing public funding commitments for developing countries amount to just $11.7 billion annually, down from around $40 billion previously pledged. So much for the commitment to scale up climate finance.
Less talk, more implementation? COP31 has the narrowest negotiating agenda of any major climate summit since Paris, focusing on delivering existing commitments, while Brazil is pushing for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.
Why This Matters: Electrification offers a rare convergence of climate action, economic competitiveness and energy security - but without adequate financing, many developing countries risk being left behind.
Kismet: Even on a gas-powered electricity grid, heat pumps can produce roughly half the emissions of conventional gas boilers - electrification delivers efficiency gains before the electricity itself is fully decarbonised. 👉 Links Inline
Global Emissions Are Falling, But for All the Wrong Reasons (Mostly)
Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall in 2026, largely thanks to the Iran war and the resulting oil price shock - hardly the decarbonisation strategy I'd recommend. But look beyond the geopolitical chaos, particularly at what's happening in China, and there's a much more encouraging structural shift underway.
Key highlights:
Global CO₂ emissions set to fall 0.4%. The latest Global Carbon Budget projects fossil fuel emissions of 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, with oil-related emissions dropping 1.9%. The danger? Emissions could rebound if/when oil prices stabilise.
China's emissions fall 3.1%. The world's largest emitter recorded its biggest quarterly emissions reduction since the Covid lockdowns in Q3 2026. Emissions have now been broadly flat or falling since March 2024, with transport oil consumption down a remarkable 9% year-on-year thanks to its successes with the electrification of transportation.
Clean energy is changing the underlying equation. China's additional solar, wind and nuclear generation in Q3 was more than twice the increase in electricity demand, pushing coal generation down 3.3%. Globally, annual emissions growth has slowed from 1.7% to 0.3% over the past decade.
Why This Matters: Oil shocks temporarily suppress fossil fuel demand, but electrification and clean energy permanently displace it, and China is increasingly demonstrating what happens when you deploy both at scale.
Kismet: China still accounts for 32% of global CO₂ emissions, yet it's also responsible for half the emissions avoided globally through the energy transition, simultaneously the world's biggest climate problem and its biggest contributor to the solution.
👉 Links Inline
AI News
Which AI Is the Biggest Climate Offender? The Answer Might Surprise You
Ever wondered whether ChatGPT, Claude or DeepSeek is doing more damage to the planet? A fascinating Bloomberg investigation reveals that the AI model you choose can make a staggering difference to your environmental footprint - and, frustratingly, the companies building these extraordinarily clever machines are remarkably reluctant to tell us how much energy they consume.
Key highlights:
Same task, 30 times the energy. Choosing the right AI model can result in a 30-fold difference in energy consumption for the same task. Smaller models such as Claude Haiku generally consume considerably less than frontier models like Claude Fable 5, while Chinese models such as Alibaba's Qwen appear more energy-efficient than some US counterparts.
Not all prompts are created equal. Generating images, videos or running autonomous AI agents consumes significantly more energy than simple text queries. One analysis found that using AI to build a software application can have an environmental impact 10,000 times greater than a straightforward query.
Location, location, location. An AI model running in a Scandinavian data centre powered by renewables can have a dramatically lower carbon footprint than the same model running on fossil-generated electricity elsewhere. Energy efficiency and carbon efficiency are two very different things.
Why This Matters: Businesses adopting AI should be selecting the smallest model capable of performing each task, demanding emissions transparency from providers, and prioritising clean-powered computing infrastructure - good for the planet and, rather conveniently, the bottom line.
Kismet: Google reports that it reduced the energy consumption of its median Gemini text prompt 33-fold between 2024 and 2025, and its carbon footprint 44-fold - proof that AI efficiency is improving at an extraordinary pace, even as overall demand explodes. 👉 Full story here
AI Cracks an 18-Year-Old Maths Problem, Decodes DNA, and Reinvents the Blood Test
Having just discussed AI's environmental footprint, here's why I remain so enthusiastic about its potential. This week, AI has helped solve a fundamental problem in quantum computing, deciphered how genetic mutations affect individual cells, and opened up the possibility of extracting vastly more information from routine blood tests.
Key highlights:
An 18-year-old mathematical mystery solved in three days. The AI company Physical Superintelligence (PSI), using an unreleased Anthropic model, proved the Aaronson-Ambainis conjecture, establishing fundamental limits on when quantum computers can achieve exponential speedups over conventional computers. The proof was independently checked by the mathematical verification software Lean.
Google DeepMind gets granular with genetics. AlphaGenome 2, trained on over 107 million cell profiles across 68 tissues, predicts how genetic mutations affect specific cell types. It identifies nearly twice as many gene-expression-altering variants as its predecessor at the same high precision, potentially accelerating drug discovery and rare disease research.
Your next blood test could reveal considerably more. Hologen and Japanese diagnostics giant Sysmex have launched Saibogen, a joint venture applying generative AI to routine blood test data. Sysmex's machines already perform approximately three billion tests annually - the ambition is to unlock hidden biological insights without additional blood samples, equipment or reagents. Initial products will be for research use. If only Elizabeth Holmes had thought to use AI!!!
Why This Matters: The most compelling applications of AI aren't generating slightly better emails or entertaining cat videos - they're accelerating scientific discovery, uncovering previously inaccessible biological information, and potentially transforming how we diagnose and treat disease.
Kismet: AlphaGenome 2 successfully reproduced a known disease mechanism in inflammatory bowel disease, connecting a genetic mutation to a gene located 290,000 DNA letters away - and pinpointing the specific immune cells in which it causes trouble. 👉 Links Inline
Electromobility
Electric Cars Are Eating Oil Demand for Breakfast - Now the Trucks Want Lunch
Electric cars are already displacing five times more oil than they did just five years ago, and with heavy goods vehicles increasingly going electric, things are about to get considerably more interesting. I'm particularly excited about the latter, because replacing a diesel truck delivers disproportionately large fuel savings.
Key highlights:
1.2 million barrels of oil displaced every day. Battery electric cars now eliminate demand for roughly 1.2% of global oil consumption, up from 215,000 barrels a day in 2021. Under current policies, that figure could reach 5.8 million barrels a day by 2034.
Electric trucks and buses are piling on. Despite representing just 1% and 5% of their respective global fleets, electric trucks and buses already displace an estimated 320,000 barrels of oil daily. And in some markets, electric trucks now exceed 50% of new sales.
Electric trucks doing 1,000km a day. German logistics company DEFRU has deployed more than 30 Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 trucks, two of which have been covering 1,000km daily, seven days a week, for a year. With intelligent charging, rooftop solar and almost no unplanned downtime, they're reportedly outperforming their diesel counterparts economically. So much for electric trucks being impractical.
Why This Matters: With road transport consuming nearly half the world's oil, electrifying cars and especially high-mileage commercial vehicles represents a fundamental threat to oil demand, and a huge opportunity for energy security.
Kismet: According to Transport & Environment's calculations, replacing one conventional truck with an electric one saves roughly as much oil as replacing ten petrol or diesel cars, which is why the electrification of freight could accelerate oil displacement dramatically. 👉 Links Inline
EV Sales Surge 36% in Europe, Triple in Australia, and Leave Petrol in the Rear-View Mirror
Global EV sales returned to growth in October, with some spectacular numbers emerging from Europe, Australia and markets beyond the traditional automotive powerhouses. What I find particularly encouraging is that increasingly affordable, desirable electric cars are winning over buyers on their own merits, although soaring petrol and diesel prices certainly aren't hurting.
Key highlights:
2.09 million EVs sold globally in October. Combined sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars rose 8% year-on-year, with European sales jumping 36% and markets outside China, Europe and North America surging 85%. China’s domestic sales fell 12%, however, while North America's 24% growth reflects a particularly weak comparison with last year.
Britain goes electric. Fully electric cars became Britain's most popular powertrain in October, with registrations soaring 54% to 49,155, capturing 31.8% of the market. Affordable, desirable models like the Renault 5 are helping drive the shift. Who knew making cars people actually want to buy would work?
Australia's EV sales more than triple. Battery electric vehicles outsold petrol-only vehicles for the third consecutive month, capturing 23.1% of October's new vehicle market, up from just 7.3% a year earlier. Petrol sales plunged 35.9%, while diesel fell 14.7%.
Why This Matters: As affordable EVs proliferate and fossil fuel volatility makes their running-cost advantage increasingly compelling, the transition is spreading well beyond its early-adopter markets, with profound implications for traditional automakers and the oil industry.
Kismet: BYD is now Australia's second-largest automotive brand by monthly sales, behind Toyota, selling more than 10,000 battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in October, and has already outsold Ford across the first ten months of 2026.
👉 Links Inline
Clean Energy
Britain Bets £12 Billion on Offshore Wind, While Texas Turns Coal Country Solar. Yeehaw!
Two enormous renewable energy projects are moving forward this week - one off the coast of Norfolk, the other on reclaimed coal mining land in Texas. What I particularly love about these stories is that they demonstrate how clean energy is attracting serious institutional capital, even in places where the political rhetoric might suggest otherwise.
Key highlights:
Britain's £12 billion offshore wind mega-project. RWE and investment giant KKR have secured financing for the 2.8 GW Vanguard East and West wind farms, capable of powering the equivalent of three million UK homes. Offshore construction begins in early 2027, with both projects expected to be fully operational by 2030.
Texas goes big on solar. The 1.2 GW Big Rooter Power project is being built on reclaimed coal mining land, using existing grid infrastructure at the Twin Oaks coal power station. The first $769 million tranche of a $1.8 billion green loan has been secured, with construction already underway.
From coal mine to energy and computing hub. The Texas development will also incorporate 1.6 GWh of battery storage, new transmission infrastructure and 790 MW of planned data centre capacity. The existing coal plant will continue operating, but renewables are becoming the dominant new investment at the site.
Why This Matters: These projects demonstrate that renewable energy is increasingly serious infrastructure business, attracting billions in long-term investment while strengthening energy security and creating industrial opportunities.
Kismet: The Texas solar project will use approximately two million American-made solar panels, manufactured in Ohio, Louisiana and Alabama, along with more than 34,000 tons of domestically manufactured steel, who says clean energy can't revitalise American manufacturing (I mean, apart from the obvious!)? 👉 Links Inline
Climate Confident:
Climate Confident: The Man Who Helped Invent Green Buildings Says We're Doing It Wrong
This week on Climate Confident, I sat down with green building legend David Gottfried, founder of the US and World Green Building Councils, and one of the driving forces behind LEED certification. Having helped transform an entire industry, David now has a rather uncomfortable message: we're celebrating our greenest buildings while overlooking the enormous emissions reduction opportunities in our worst ones.
Key highlights:
Forget the shiny new buildings. LEED has spread to around 180 countries, but the biggest untapped opportunity lies in older, inefficient buildings - the ones with single-glazed windows, poor insulation and antiquated heating systems that rarely qualify for green certification.
AI's building boom needs a carbon reality check. Data centres are being constructed at breakneck speed, consuming enormous quantities of concrete, steel, electricity and water. David argues that hyperscalers and governments could accelerate low-carbon materials innovation by committing to buy them at scale.
Make doing good financially irresistible. Faster planning approvals, tax incentives, lower operating costs and higher property values can all drive investment in greener buildings. David's new book, Regen 360, takes this thinking further, arguing that our entire economic operating system needs to reward regeneration rather than merely reducing harm.
Why This Matters: If we're serious about cutting building emissions at scale, we need to reward measurable improvements across the entire building stock, rather than simply handing out certificates to the buildings that were already performing best.
Kismet: David's inspiration for transforming the world's worst-performing buildings? WeightWatchers and the Girl Scouts - welcome everyone, establish a baseline, and celebrate every incremental improvement with rewards. There's something rather brilliant about that. 🎧 Listen to the full episode
Resilient Supply Chain:
Resilient Supply Chain: Tariffs Are Hammering Your Margins. Foreign Trade Zones Could Be the Answer.
This week on Resilient Supply Chain, I spoke with Curtis Spencer, CEO of IMS Worldwide and a veteran of the US foreign trade zone (FTZ) industry. With tariffs disrupting sourcing strategies and squeezing margins, Curtis makes a compelling case for treating foreign trade zones as a strategic resilience tool, rather than an obscure corner of customs compliance.
Key highlights:
Tariff mitigation can protect entire markets. Curtis describes a company that preserved $50 million in export sales by using foreign trade zones to avoid paying US import duties on goods subsequently re-exported. That's $50 million in sales protected, not duties saved - an important distinction.
The economics need to stack up. Curtis recommends targeting savings of at least three times the cost of operating a zone. And with implementation taking seven to twelve months, waiting until tariffs have already wrecked your margins isn't a particularly clever strategy.
Flexibility is the real prize. Foreign trade zones can help companies retain reliable suppliers, defer duty payments and diversify sourcing without incurring unnecessary tariff costs. But there's a catch: if your supplier data still arrives as emailed PDFs and your inventory systems can't reconcile it reliably, you've simply acquired another operational headache.
Why This Matters: In an increasingly volatile trading environment, the competitive advantage belongs to companies that build sourcing flexibility into their operations before disruption strikes, and foreign trade zones could be an increasingly valuable part of that strategy.
Kismet: Foreign trade zones aren't confined to seaports - your existing warehouse or manufacturing facility could potentially qualify, even somewhere as landlocked as South Dakota. Who knew South Dakota had a port? A customs port, that is. The beach remains elusive. 🎧 Listen to the full episode
Don’t forget to follow the podcasts in your podcast app of choice to ensure you don’t miss any episodes.
Featured Chart(s)
Pure EV sales in Germany are eclipsing all other fuel types
And they’re far nicer to look at too!
Renewables aren’t just cheaper, they’re also far faster to deploy!
War’s silver lining?
EV’s winning on cost!
Misc stuff
Topical!!!
Obligatory Trump Cartoon(s)!
Self explanatory!
Engage
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Finally, since being impacted by the tech layoffs, I'm currently in the market for a new role. If you know someone who could benefit from my tech savvy, sustainability, and strong social media expertise, I'd be really grateful for a referral.
If you have any comments or suggestions for how I can improve this newsletter, don’t hesitate to let me know. Thanks.
*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***
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