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Hey everyone, it’s Thursday, the inbox is twitchy, and FutureProof is back.
And to everyone celebrating, Happy Chinese New Year. 新年快乐. May the Year ahead bring resilience, clarity, and a little less regulatory whiplash.
This week is about acceleration.
Not hype. Not headlines. Actual systems picking up speed.
The big five:
China signals that new electricity demand will be met by renewables — industrial strategy disguised as climate policy.
Brazil drives Amazon deforestation to a 12-year low, proving leadership choices ripple through ecosystems.
Climate moves into the national security briefing room, reframing risk as stability, not ideology.
AI cracks physics and proteins while simultaneously leaving the screen and heading into wearables.
EV owners confirm what we already suspected - once you go electric, you don’t go back.
Also this week: Ethiopia’s EV surge after banning fossil car imports, Africa becomes the fastest-growing solar market on pure economics, Australia’s batteries scale from “big” to grid-defining, shipping electrifies from hydrofoils to 10,000-tonne vessels, and climate law pushes back in the courts.
Plus a new blog post on why capital now follows electrons, a Climate Confident episode on AI’s power hunger and the return of the microgrid, and a Resilient Supply Chain deep dive into why supplier data is still broken, and how AI might fix it.
Let’s get into it.
And here are this week’s stories:
Climate
Brazil’s Amazon Turnaround: Deforestation Hits a 12-Year Low
Sometimes policy works. Brazil’s latest satellite alerts show Amazon deforestation falling to its lowest level for this period since 2014, with just 1,325 km² cleared between August and January - down sharply year-on-year, and 12-month totals also at a 2014 low, reinforcing a sustained downward trend.
Highlights:
1,325 km² cleared Aug–Jan, down from 2,050 km² the previous year — lowest for that interval since 2014
Annual deforestation (to July 2025) fell 11% to 5,796 km², the lowest level in 11 years
Enforcement strengthened: 70 of the 81 highest-deforesting municipalities have joined federal anti-deforestation initiatives
Why This Matters: Leadership choices ripple through ecosystems, and this data suggests that when governments prioritise enforcement, funding, and coordination, forest loss can fall dramatically within a single political cycle.
Kismet: The Amazon generates so much moisture through transpiration that it effectively creates its own rainfall system - scientists estimate that up to half of the region’s rain is recycled by the forest itself, meaning protecting trees literally protects the sky above them. 👉 Full story here
China Signals: New Power Demand? Make It Renewable
While others squabble over yesterday’s energy systems, Xi has made it explicit: China’s future electricity growth is to be met primarily by renewables, alongside the construction of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories - which, whether you admire the politics or not, reads like industrial strategy written in megawatts.
Highlights:
New electricity demand to be supplied mainly by renewable generation
Commitment to building zero-carbon industrial parks and zero-carbon factories
Clear policy direction linking clean power expansion to manufacturing competitiveness
Why This Matters: This isn’t climate theatre; it’s a signal that the world’s largest manufacturer intends to wire its next phase of economic growth directly into clean energy - and that reshapes supply chains, trade flows, and competitive advantage.
Kismet: In 2009 China produced roughly 1% of the world’s solar panels; today it manufactures over 80% - the fastest large-scale industrial capture of a global market in modern history. 👉 Full story here
Green Steel: Europe’s Industrial Comeback Plan
The EU is putting green steel at the heart of its industrial revival strategy, classifying steel by its emissions intensity and mandating that 25% of steel used in public procurement and subsidy programmes be low-carbon. This isn’t symbolism. It’s demand creation, written into policy.
Highlights:
Steel to be categorised based on emissions generated during manufacture
Governments required to ensure 25% of publicly supported steel is low-carbon
Industrial Accelerator Act aims to secure manufacturing as 20% of Europe’s economic growth by 2035, with “Made in Europe” criteria
Why This Matters: Steel and cement together account for more than 6% of the EU’s annual greenhouse gas emissions, so locking in demand for low-carbon steel simultaneously cuts emissions and shields Europe’s industrial base from being hollowed out.
Kismet: Steel production globally is responsible for roughly 7–8% of total CO₂ emissions, more than aviation and shipping combined, so if you decarbonise steel, you quietly move one of the biggest levers in the entire climate equation. 👉 Full story here
Climate Gets Promoted to National Security Briefing
Climate action is increasingly being framed as core national security policy, with the UN climate chief Simon Stiell warning that strategies ignoring climate are “dangerously narrow.” The key shift? Recognising that climate extremes fuel famine, displacement and instability, and that renewables strengthen energy sovereignty.
Highlights:
Climate action described as “mission critical” for leaders serious about security
Recognition that climate impacts are destabilising economies and populations
Renewables positioned as the clearest, cheapest route to energy security and sovereignty
Why This Matters: When climate moves from the environment ministry to the defence briefing room, it stops being ideological and starts being strategic, opening the door to broader, bipartisan action.
Kismet: The US military has labelled climate change a “threat multiplier” for over a decade, meaning one of the most security-focused institutions on Earth has long understood that heatwaves and drought can destabilise regions as surely as tanks and missiles. 👉 Full story here
AI News
AI Is Cracking Physics and Proteins - Science Just Hit Fast-Forward
In one case, GPT-5.2 helped derive a new result in theoretical particle physics, proposing a simplified formula for a gluon scattering amplitude that physicists had long assumed was zero, later formally proven and analytically verified. In another, researchers combined AI with physics-based simulations to predict complex protein structures about 13% more accurately than existing methods, unlocking faster drug discovery and disease research.
Highlights:
GPT-5.2 identified and generalised a new formula for gluon scattering amplitudes, later formally proven by researchers
AI-assisted pattern recognition dramatically reduced super-complex Feynman diagram expansions into simple, elegant expressions
New AI-physics hybrid tool (D-I-TASSER) predicts complex protein structures ~13% more accurately than state-of-the-art approaches
Why This Matters: From fundamental particle interactions to the folding of proteins inside human cells, AI is accelerating the pace of discovery, compressing years of analytical grind into days and potentially speeding breakthroughs in medicine, materials and energy.
Kismet: The human body contains around 20,000 different proteins, and for many of them we still don’t know their full 3D structure. AI isn’t just helping scientists work faster; it’s helping them see parts of biology that were effectively invisible.
👉 Links are in the story
AI Moves Off the Screen — Apple Signals the Next Interface Shift
Apple is accelerating work on AI-powered wearables - smart glasses, a camera-enabled pendant, and upgraded AirPods, all built around a more context-aware Siri. The direction of travel is clear: AI that doesn’t wait for you to open an app, but understands your environment in real time and acts accordingly.
Highlights:
Smart glasses (targeted for 2027) designed as an all-day AI companion using cameras and computer vision
A pendant accessory acting as the iPhone’s “eyes and ears” for ambient context
Camera-equipped AirPods potentially launching this year, embedding AI deeper into everyday interactions
Why This Matters: This isn’t just new hardware - it’s a signal that the next platform battle may be about ambient, always-available AI. If the dominant interface shifts from screen-based interaction to contextual assistance, we may be witnessing the early stages of a post-smartphone era.
Kismet: The last great computing shift wasn’t faster chips, it was moving the interface from the desktop to your pocket with the smartphone. If AI wearables gain traction, this could be the next migration of the interface itself. 👉 Full story here
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Goes Free — And the AI Race Just Got More Interesting
Anthropic has released Claude Sonnet 4.6 as the default model on its free tier, bringing major upgrades in coding, long-context reasoning, agent planning and computer use to a much broader audience. With a 1 million token context window (in beta) and improved performance across benchmarks, it’s approaching Opus-level capability at a far more accessible price point (free!).
Highlights:
Sonnet 4.6 now default on free and Pro tiers, with pricing unchanged
1M token context window (beta), enabling analysis of entire codebases or lengthy documents in one go
Major improvements in computer use, instruction following, and multi-step task reliability
Early users preferred Sonnet 4.6 over its predecessor ~70% of the time
Why This Matters: When frontier-level AI capabilities move onto free tiers, access to advanced reasoning, coding and document analysis tools expands dramatically, accelerating innovation not just for large enterprises, but for startups, researchers and individuals.
Kismet: On OSWorld, a benchmark for real-world computer use, Sonnet models have jumped from 14.9% performance in late 2024 to 72.5% with Sonnet 4.6 - a fivefold leap in just sixteen months. That pace of improvement is starting to compress technology cycles in ways we’re only beginning to grasp. 👉 Full story here
Electromobility
2025 BMW i4 M50 xDrive (Source: BMW)
Once You Go EV, You Don’t Go Back - 96% Say They’re Staying Electric
A new JD Power study finds that 96% of EV owners plan to stick with electric for their next vehicle. Even without the now-expired $7,500 federal tax credit, satisfaction remains at record levels - driven by improving battery performance, expanding charging infrastructure, and far lower running costs.
Highlights:
96% of EV owners say they’ll stay with EVs for their next purchase
Satisfaction scores rose year-on-year, particularly around charging availability
EVs outscored plug-in hybrids in both premium and mass-market segments
Why This Matters: Technology transitions become unstoppable when users refuse to go back. At 96% retention, EVs are no longer an experiment, they’re becoming the default experience.
Kismet: BlackBerry once controlled over half the US smartphone market. Within a decade, touchscreen smartphones made physical keyboards feel like museum pieces. Once drivers experience instant torque, silent acceleration and home charging, internal combustion starts to feel oddly… nostalgic. 👉 Full story here
Ethiopia Bans Fossil Car Imports - EVs Surge to 6% of All Vehicles on the Road
In a radical step, Ethiopia banned the import of fossil-fuel cars in 2024 and slashed tariffs on electric vehicles, and the result has been explosive. In just two years, EVs have jumped from less than 1% to nearly 6% of all vehicles on the road, above the current global average of 4%.
Highlights:
Fossil-fuel car imports banned; EV tariffs cut to as low as 0-15% depending on assembly stage
EV penetration rose from <1% to ~6% in two years
Electricity costs around $0.10/kWh - roughly half neighbouring countries and well below US averages
17 EV assembly plants already operating, with a target of 60 by 2030
Why This Matters: Ethiopia is using cheap domestic hydropower to replace imported oil - improving energy sovereignty, cutting fuel subsidy burdens, and seeding a local assembly industry. For developing countries that import both vehicles and fuel, this model makes hard economic sense.
Kismet: Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam produces 5,150 MW of power - giving the country surplus electricity it now exports to neighbours. In a world where many countries import oil to move their cars, Ethiopia is flipping the equation: power your transport with what you produce at home. 👉 Full story here
Shipping’s Electric Moment: From Hydrofoils to 10,000-Tonne Battery Ships
For years, shipping has been labelled “hard to abate.” This week’s headlines suggest that label is expiring.
China has launched a 10,000-tonne all-electric container ship powered by swappable battery containers. In Stockholm, an electric hydrofoil ferry cut energy use by 66%, slashed emissions by over 90%, and nearly halved travel times. Meanwhile, despite delays to a global carbon price, major shipping companies have already invested over $150 billion in dual-fuel and lower-emission vessels. And in a detailed new analysis, Michael Barnard argues that most battery-shipping studies are already obsolete because they rely on outdated battery costs and densities. Btw, I will be discussing this and other topics with Michael in next week’s episode of Climate Confident.
Highlights:
China’s large-scale electric container ship signals commercial electrification is scaling beyond pilot projects
Stockholm hydrofoil ferry: 66% lower energy use, >90% emissions reduction, strong socio-economic returns
$150bn+ invested in dual-fuel vessels, now 74% of the container ship orderbook
Battery prices have fallen dramatically, pushing inland and short-sea shipping firmly into the battery-viable column
Why This Matters: Shipping accounts for roughly 3% of global emissions. If inland and short-sea routes electrify rapidly while deep-sea shipping hybridises, the sector’s decarbonisation curve could bend far sooner than many models assumed.
Kismet: At modern battery densities, a 1,100-TEU feeder operating a 320 MWh sea leg would need roughly 64 standard containers of batteries - under 6% of its slot capacity. The constraint isn’t chemistry anymore. It’s megawatts at the quay. 👉 Stories linked inline.
Clean Energy & Storage
Clean Energy Economics “Just Get Better and Better”
Chris Stark, head of the UK’s clean power mission, put it bluntly: the economics of clean energy keep improving, and critics look increasingly like King Canute trying to hold back the tide.
Despite geopolitical noise and political pushback, the UK is accelerating renewables, storage and grid upgrades to displace volatile gas. The strategy is straightforward: lock in long-term cheap power and insulate consumers from the next inevitable fossil fuel price spike.
Highlights:
24 GW of renewables contracted across two recent auction rounds, displacing significant gas generation
88 critical transmission upgrades identified to unlock clean power and reduce system costs
Renewables described as “huge insurance” against future gas price shocks
Vision of the UK as an “electrostate” built on renewables, storage, EVs and flexible demand
Why This Matters: As electrification grows, especially from EV uptake, fixed system costs are spread across a larger demand base, driving down unit prices over time. Clean power isn’t ideological; it’s long-term economic risk management.
Kismet: When Russia invaded Ukraine, the UK imported only single-digit percentages of Russian gas, yet still suffered the full impact of the global price spike. Energy security isn’t about where the gas comes from. It’s about not needing it in the first place. 👉 Full story here
Africa Becomes the World’s Fastest-Growing Solar Market Because the Numbers Add Up
Africa became the world’s fastest-growing solar market in 2025, expanding installed capacity by 17% even as global growth slowed. A 60% surge in Chinese panel imports is pushing solar beyond early adopters and into mainstream adoption across the continent.
This isn’t ideology. It’s economics.
Highlights:
Africa’s solar capacity grew 17% in 2025, the fastest growth globally
20 African nations set new annual solar import records
Nigeria overtook Egypt as the continent’s second-largest solar importer
Battery storage costs fell to $112/kWh in 2025, down from $144/kWh in 2023
Why This Matters:In regions where diesel is expensive and grids are unreliable, solar plus storage is now the rational choice. Developing economies are leapfrogging straight to distributed clean power because it’s cheaper, more reliable and locally deployable.
Kismet: Nearly 64 GWp of solar equipment has been shipped to Africa since 2017, yet only 23.4 GWp is currently operational. The real acceleration is still in the pipeline.
👉 Full story here
Australia’s Battery Boom Gets Very, Very Big
Australia’s top 15 utility-scale battery projects are now so large that the original Hornsdale “big battery” - once considered almost absurdly ambitious at 100 MW / 129 MWh, barely registers by comparison.
There are now nearly 50 large batteries operating across the country, with many more under construction or firmly contracted. Most of the top 15 projects have more than 10 times the storage capacity of Hornsdale. One will exceed it by more than 30 times. And storage durations are shifting from one hour to four, eight, and even 10+ hours.
Highlights:
The largest project (Hanworth, NSW) is planned at 1,200 MW / 4,800 MWh
Multiple projects exceed 3 GWh of storage, targeting evening peaks and system stability
Nearly 50 big batteries now operating across Australia
Battery cell prices have fallen more than 80% since Hornsdale was built
Storage durations are expanding to 8–11+ hours, not just short-term frequency control
Why This Matters: Large-scale batteries are no longer niche grid balancers. They are replacing coal capacity, soaking up midday solar, strengthening transmission corridors and providing long-duration reliability. The scale tells you something important: system operators now trust batteries as core infrastructure.
Kismet: When Hornsdale launched in 2017, many energy experts said 100 MW was implausibly large. Today, the Waratah Super Battery at 850 MW is the most powerful machine ever connected to the Australian grid, of any type. The debate has shifted from “Can batteries work?” to “How big should we build them?” 👉 Full story here
Climate Litigation
Climate Law Fights Back: EPA Rollback Heads to Court
A coalition of environmental and public health groups has sued the US Environmental Protection Agency over its repeal of the 2009 “endangerment finding”, the legal foundation that allows greenhouse gases to be regulated under the Clean Air Act.
The rollback would dismantle federal vehicle emissions standards and remove the legal basis for regulating six greenhouse gases deemed harmful to public health and welfare.
Highlights:
Lawsuit filed in the D.C. Circuit challenging repeal of the 2009 endangerment finding
The finding stems from the Supreme Court’s Massachusetts v. EPA decision
Repeal would eliminate tailpipe standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles
Coalition includes major health and environmental organisations such as the American Lung Association and Sierra Club
Why This Matters: Climate policy doesn’t exist only in executive orders, it is embedded in legal precedent. Litigation has become one of the most powerful checks on regulatory rollbacks, and the courts remain a central arena in determining how durable climate protections really are.
Kismet: The original endangerment finding was issued in 2009, two years after the Supreme Court ruled that greenhouse gases qualify as pollutants under US law. Nearly twenty years later, that single legal interpretation still underpins the entire architecture of federal climate regulation. Though with the current US Supreme Court, who knows what will happen! 👉 Full story here
Latest blog post
Capital Follows Electrons
When companies decide where to build factories, smelters, data centres or processing plants, they don’t wax lyrical about climate virtue. They look at spreadsheets. Energy costs. Volatility. Reliability. Long-term risk.
In my latest blog post, I argue that electrification is no longer just a climate strategy, it’s becoming the organising logic of economic growth. South Australia has gone from being mocked for “too much renewables” to attracting industry because its grid is clean and increasingly insulated from gas shocks. Iceland did it decades ago. Now China, India and Africa are scaling it.
Highlights:
Global electricity demand is rising 3–4% annually, driven by EVs, heat pumps, industry and AI
Renewables now account for the vast majority of new generation capacity worldwide
China’s clean energy sectors drove more than one-third of GDP growth in 2025
India is industrialising with less coal and oil per capita than China at a similar stage
Africa is leapfrogging fossil-heavy systems with solar plus storage
Why This Matters: Energy is no longer just an input cost, it’s a competitive advantage. Countries that electrify quickly and cleanly gain cheaper power, greater security and industrial pull. Those that delay risk locking themselves into volatile fuels and stranded assets.
Kismet: For much of the 20th century, capital followed oil fields and coal seams. In the 21st, it increasingly follows transmission lines and substations. Electrons don’t pass through straits or pipelines, and investors have noticed. 👉 Full story here
Climate Confident:
Climate Confident #260: AI’s Power Hunger & The Return of the Microgrid
AI isn’t just a software story, it’s an electricity story.
In this week’s episode, I sat down with Beatrice Clark, VP of Sustainability at Turtle, to unpack the surge in energy demand driven by AI, electrification, and data centres, and what it means for grid resilience.
We explored why microgrids are back, why diesel vs renewables is often the wrong debate, and why sustainability only works when the ROI is real.
Highlights:
AI is accelerating electricity demand faster than grid upgrades can keep up
Microgrids and battery storage are becoming resilience tools, not fringe tech
Fleet electrification sounds easy until you run heavy logistics at scale
Double materiality only works when governance and ownership are embedded
Why This Matters: The energy transition isn’t theoretical, it’s operational. The organisations treating sustainability as infrastructure strategy, not marketing, are the ones building real resilience.
Kismet: The 20th century ran on oil. The 21st will run on electrons, and AI just turned up the voltage. 🎧 Listen to the full episode
Resilient Supply Chain:
Resilient Supply Chain #107: Garbage Data, Silent Suppliers & The Transparency Gap
Over 50% of compliance and sustainability professionals say they’re getting low-quality supplier data. Over 40% say they never hear back at all.
And yet we’re building ESG commitments, regulatory declarations and risk models on top of that same supply chain.
This week, I spoke with Lily Hogan, Senior Product Manager at 3E, about why supplier transparency is still painfully hard, and how digital product passports and AI might finally shift the equation.
Highlights:
Tens of thousands of components can mean tens of thousands of supplier data requests
Email and spreadsheets are still doing the heavy lifting
Unified platforms reduce duplicate requests and supplier fatigue
PFAS regulations show how fast companies must pivot when the data is available
AI can automate repetitive data collection and validation, freeing teams to focus on relationships
Why This Matters: If you can’t trust your supplier data, you can’t trust your compliance position, your sustainability claims, or your resilience strategy. Transparency isn’t branding, it’s operational survival.
Kismet: The Good Friday Agreement succeeded because someone found common ground between opposing sides. Supply chain transparency is similar - progress happens when buyers and suppliers stop shouting requests at each other and start building shared systems. 🎧 Listen to the full episode
Coming Soon to the podcasts
In the coming episodes I will be talking to Ricky Ho, Founder and CEO of SourceReady, and as I mentioned above, Michael Barnard from The Future Is Electric - for a conversation you won’t want to miss!
Featured Chart(s)
Two thirds of all energy is wasted. Fossil fuels are incredibly inefficient. Moving to electrification would cut our energy demands globally roughly 50%
Coal use is dropping. Now we need to do the same for gas.
EVs are improving in terms of their range, charging speed, and power while prices are falling year-on-year.
No wonder their sales are growing year-on-year!
Related - battery storage market is growing really quickly.
Unrelated - chickens are also now growing really quickly!
Misc stuff
No explanation needed here!
Given the winter olympics are on, I thought this one was good!
As the great philosopher Bobby McFerrin once said Don’t worry, be happy.
Kudos if you get this one!!!
And kudos too to all the people who signed off on this Oatly packaging - well done folks.
And finally the Chinese New Year fell this week. This year is the year of the horse.
Engage
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Finally, since being impacted by the tech layoffs, I'm currently in the market for a new role. If you know someone who could benefit from my tech savvy, sustainability, and strong social media expertise, I'd be really grateful for a referral.
If you have any comments or suggestions for how I can improve this newsletter, don’t hesitate to let me know. Thanks.
*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***
And Finally
Dark reminder to always be skeptical of AI!
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