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Hey everyone, it’s Thursday, and FutureProof is back.
The title this week is: China Claims the Climate Crown, EVs Hit 29%, and AI Reads Your Sleep.
As Washington retreats from climate action, China is stepping forward - awkwardly, imperfectly, but with most of the factories making the technologies everyone else increasingly needs. Meanwhile, EVs are approaching a third of global new-car sales, solar has quietly passed three terawatts, and AI is finding health warnings hidden inside a night’s sleep.
The transition, in other words, is becoming harder to dismiss and much harder to stop.
Highlights this week:
Climate: China reaches for global climate leadership, attribution science strengthens the case for making fossil-fuel companies pay for wildfire damage, and five Amazon nations launch a vast cross-border environmental crime crackdown.
AI: Sleep data reveals hidden health risks, OpenAI claims significant advances in maths and computer science, and one professor catches 32 students using AI with an invisible Madagascar trap.
EVs and transport: EVs are on track to reach 29% of global new-car sales, Chinese manufacturers gain ground from Europe to Argentina, and electric aircraft edge closer to carrying passengers on short European routes.
Clean energy: Global solar passes three terawatts, India discovers that building panels faster than grids and batteries creates an entirely new class of problem, and renewables show their resilience as heatwaves disrupt nuclear and gas generation.
Podcasts: Professor Peter Newman explains why cities, economics and practical hope will drive the fossil-fuel transition, while Wiliot’s Doron Hazan argues that supply-chain AI needs a physical nervous system before it can become genuinely useful.
I’m also launching the FutureProof Exchange, a free community for newsletter subscribers who want to compare emerging signals, share practical experience and challenge assumptions about climate, energy, technology, business and policy.
This is not intended to become another feed full of orphaned links and drive-by opinions. The aim is thoughtful discussion between people doing the work.
I’ll invite an initial group of roughly 200 of the most engaged readers over this coming weekend, then gradually open it to the remaining 3,000 or so subscribers as the community begins to take shape. Anyone who would like to be included in the first cohort can simply reply to this email to contact me.
Right. China has apparently taken the climate crown, AI has inspected your sleep, and Madagascar has exposed an academic integrity crisis.
Let’s get into it.
Climate
America Walks Away. China Reaches for the Climate Crown
I’m not about to confuse Beijing’s climate ambition with sainthood, but as Washington retreats, China is openly positioning itself to steer global climate action, with green technology, trade and industrial muscle doing much of the diplomatic heavy lifting. It is climate leadership, certainly, though conveniently aligned with selling the solar panels, batteries, EVs and grid equipment everyone else increasingly needs.
China’s new five-year plan says it intends to “constructively lead” global climate governance through 2030, a marked upgrade from describing itself merely as a participant and contributor.
The strategy puts free trade in green and low-carbon products at its centre, giving China’s vast clean-tech manufacturing sector greater access to overseas markets as domestic demand softens.
Beijing also plans deeper cuts to methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride, alongside stronger flood protection, climate-risk mapping and extreme-weather warnings.
Why This Matters: Climate leadership is shifting from speeches and summit diplomacy to control of the factories, supply chains and technologies powering the transition, and China currently holds an extraordinary number of those cards.
Kismet: China’s strongest climate argument may ultimately be neither moral nor ideological, but brutally commercial: decarbonisation is becoming one of its biggest export industries. 👉 Full story here
Wildfires Get a Forensic Accountant — and Fossil Fuels May Get the Bill
Attribution science is turning climate damage from a grim correlation into something far harder to wriggle away from: evidence. Researchers found fossil-fuel-driven warming made Canada’s extreme fire weather roughly twice as likely, strengthening the case that companies which profited from the pollution should help pay for the homes, health systems, ecosystems and communities now burning because of it.
Canada had already lost 3.8 million hectares to fire by 3 August, far above its 30-year annual average of 2.7 million hectares.
Conditions like these would have occurred less than once every 40 years without climate change; they now return every two to six years in the Northwest Territories and every six to 15 years in Ontario.
Indigenous communities have suffered disproportionately, while smoke exposure, evacuations and increasingly dangerous firefighting conditions are multiplying the human cost far beyond the fire line.
Why This Matters: Attribution science is creating the evidential bridge between emissions and specific disasters, giving climate litigation, insurance claims and public policy a far sharper instrument, although pinning liability on individual companies still requires company-level emissions attribution and favourable law.
Kismet: World Weather Attribution has now produced 130 rapid assessments, meaning climate science can increasingly reach the scene while the disaster is still unfolding, rather like CSI, except the suspect has an oil rig. 👉 Full story here
The Amazon’s Ecocriminals Finally Meet a Borderless Police Force
In a region where environmental defenders have too often paid with their safety, and sometimes their lives, it is deeply encouraging to see the law aimed at the destroyers instead. Five Amazon nations joined forces in one of the rainforest’s largest coordinated environmental crime crackdowns, proving illegal miners, loggers and traffickers cannot rely forever on slipping across a border and pretending the forest damage belongs to someone else.
More than 3,600 officers carried out 1,045 operations across Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, resulting in 839 arrests.
Authorities seized over 280,000 cubic metres of illegally harvested timber, 195 tonnes of minerals and mining equipment, with the total haul valued above $280 million.
More than 3,000 live animals were rescued, while investigators targeted the interconnected criminal networks behind illegal mining, logging, wildlife trafficking, fuel smuggling and land grabbing.
Why This Matters: Environmental crime is transnational, highly profitable organised crime, and protecting the Amazon requires intelligence sharing, coordinated enforcement and consequences that are more expensive than simply carrying on.
Kismet: The operation was coordinated through a UAE-backed international law-enforcement initiative, an unexpected example of oil wealth helping police rainforest destruction. 👉 Full story here
AI News
Your Sleep Study Knows More About You Than Your Doctor Realised
A routine night in a sleep lab may contain a hidden health dossier. Researchers have built an AI model that detects subtle physiological patterns linked to heart disease, cognitive decline and mortality, extracting far more value from data clinicians already collect, but largely compress into a few blunt summary scores.
The model sorted patients into five distinct risk groups, with those in the highest-risk category facing twice the five-year mortality risk of those in the lowest.
It uncovered differences missed by the standard apnoea-hypopnoea index, the usual measure for assessing sleep apnoea severity.
Its predictions worked well for both women and men and were independently confirmed using a nationwide patient cohort, although broader validation is still needed.
Why This Matters: AI’s most immediate healthcare value may come less from inventing new tests than from finding overlooked signals inside the millions of tests medicine already performs.
Kismet: Because sleep studies track signals from the brain, heart, lungs and muscles simultaneously, one night’s sleep could become a surprisingly comprehensive health check, pyjamas optional, apparently. 👉 Full story here
OpenAI’s Next Model Just Went Hunting for Unsolved Maths
OpenAI says an internal version of its forthcoming Astra model generated ten major advances across mathematics and theoretical computer science, including answers to questions that have resisted researchers for decades. Potentially seismic, but I’d keep the champagne corked until independent mathematicians have thoroughly checked the work, because a company announcing that its own AI solved the problems is evidence, not yet consensus.
The results span sphere packing, coding theory, group theory, quantum games, circuit complexity, lattice problems relevant to post-quantum cryptography and several Erdős conjectures.
OpenAI says the model generated the mathematical arguments; humans turned them into manuscripts, after which the model formalised each proof in Lean.
The compute used to find all ten solutions would reportedly have cost about $2,000 at equivalent API rates, astonishingly little beside the potential scientific value.
Why This Matters: AI may be crossing the line from accelerating researchers’ existing work to producing original discoveries that expand the boundaries of human knowledge.
Kismet: One claimed result delivers the first improvement to the general high-dimensional sphere-packing exponent since 1978 — nearly half a century of mathematical resistance, apparently shifted by a machine and a surprisingly modest compute bill. 👉 Full story here
Professor Sets an AI Trap. Thirty-Two Students Walk Straight Into It
A history professor hid a white-text instruction inside a midterm telling chatbots to insert nonsensical references to Madagascar, and 32 of 35 students obediently submitted the evidence against themselves. Ingenious, hilarious and probably short-lived: better models already detect prompt injection, while slightly more attentive students may eventually discover the radical academic technique known as reading their own answers.
The exam asked students to compare the Industrial Revolution with today’s digital transformation, while the invisible prompt instructed AI tools to mention Madagascar somewhere absurd.
Responses duly announced that “Madagascar floats sideways through the afternoon” and had the country wearing a toaster to a basketball game.
The professor explained the trap, showed students the hidden text and allowed appeals; only two challenged their grades.
Why This Matters: The episode exposes a deeper educational failure than AI use itself, students outsourced the thinking, then failed even to inspect what the machine produced.
Kismet: Hidden white text began as a trick for sneaking keywords past automated CV filters; it has now completed the circle by catching humans outsourcing their work to algorithms. 👉 Full story here
Electromobility
Import EVs, Export the Petrol Bill
Apparently, importing large numbers of affordable EVs means buying less petrol. Who knew? Across a remarkably diverse group of economies, surging imports of Chinese electric cars are now coinciding with sharp falls in petrol imports, still an early signal rather than proof of causation, but one the oil industry would be unwise to dismiss.
Australia’s petrol imports fell 15% while its imports of Chinese EVs surged by nearly 200%.
Pakistan increased Chinese EV imports by 549% to almost $500 million, challenging the idea that electrification belongs mainly to wealthy countries.
Even the oil-rich UAE cut petrol imports by 61% while buying more than $1.4 billion of Chinese EVs, although regional disruption also affected fuel flows.
Why This Matters: Affordable EVs are beginning to weaken petrol demand across rich, emerging and oil-producing economies alike, turning electrification into an energy-security strategy as much as a climate one.
Kismet: Fuel traders may soon need to watch Chinese car-export data as closely as refinery outages, because the next disruption to petrol demand could arrive on a vehicle carrier rather than through an oil pipeline. 👉 Full story here
Nearly One in Three New Cars Is Electric, and the Old Guard Is Losing Ground
Politics can shout, tariffs can sulk, and legacy carmakers can commission another strategic review, but buyers keep choosing electric. What strikes me is how broad the shift has become: from Britain and Ireland to Argentina and Southeast Asia, Chinese manufacturers are converting lower prices, integrated battery supply chains and blistering product cycles into global market share.
EVs are on track to reach 29% of global new-car sales in 2026, while sales across Australia, Brazil, India, Korea and Vietnam roughly doubled year-on-year between March and June; Chinese EV exports jumped more than 120%.
EVs are now Ireland’s bestselling powertrain at 26% of the market, while BYD has already entered Argentina’s top ten car brands after selling more than 8,200 vehicles there this year.
Why This Matters: Automotive leadership is shifting away from mastery of engines and gearboxes and towards batteries, electronics, software, manufacturing efficiency and supply-chain control, precisely where Chinese companies have spent years building formidable advantages.
Kismet: Argentina’s loudly pro-Washington president opened a tariff-free EV quota to fight inflation, then imposed a price ceiling that effectively handed Chinese manufacturers the inside lane, ideology, meet showroom economics. 👉 Links Inline
Electric Planes Are Preparing for Take-Off
Electrification is moving beyond roads and into the skies, with European start-ups targeting commercial battery and hybrid-electric flights before 2030. The first aircraft will be small and the routes short, but for island connections and remote regions that rail cannot serve, this could be aviation’s first credible escape route from imported jet fuel.
Aircraft capable of flying up to 500 kilometres could serve roughly a quarter of Europe’s routes, including London–Dublin, Barcelona–Ibiza and Athens–Santorini.
Vaeridion plans to certify a nine-seat electric aircraft by 2030, while Aura Aero is targeting late 2029 for its 19-seat hybrid model, which it says could cut emissions by up to 80%.
Larger designs are already emerging: Elysian and KLM are developing a 90-seat battery-electric aircraft with a planned range of up to 1,000 kilometres by 2035.
Why This Matters: Electric aviation will not replace long-haul jets soon, but it can begin decarbonising precisely those short over-water and regional journeys where trains are not a practical substitute.
Kismet: One German start-up estimates electric flights could eventually cost under €0.50 per passenger-kilometre, comparable with first-class rail, but with considerably fewer sandwiches involving suspiciously warm cheese. 👉 Full story here
Clean Energy
Solar Just Hit Three Terawatts - Almost Nobody Noticed
The world has quietly crossed 3 terawatts of installed solar, and the acceleration is extraordinary: the first terawatt took a decade, while the next two arrived in under five years. Solar is no longer a rich-country subsidy story; it is becoming ubiquitous infrastructure, although finance and storage now matter more than panel supply.
Global solar capacity passed 3 terawatts in 2026 and is forecast to exceed 9 terawatts by 2036.
As many as 74 countries had installed at least 1 gigawatt by 2025, up from just 42 in 2020, with rapid rooftop growth in Pakistan, Nigeria, the Philippines, Cuba and Lebanon.
Developing countries could host more than a quarter of global solar capacity by 2036, but affordable finance, transmission and batteries remain the principal constraints.
Why This Matters: Solar’s central challenge is shifting from manufacturing enough panels to financing, connecting and storing the astonishing volume of cheap electricity they produce.
Kismet: The world installed its second terawatt of solar in less than three years and its third in under two, exponential growth has an amusing habit of making once-historic milestones look quaint almost immediately. 👉 Full story here
India’s Solar Boom Has Slammed Into the Grid Wall
India has scaled solar from 3 GW in 2014 to roughly 157 GW, but success has outrun the wires, batteries and market flexibility needed to use it. The country does not have too much electricity overall; it has enormous volumes arriving in the wrong places and at the wrong hours - a very solvable problem, provided grid investment now catches up with generation.
India curtailed 8,133 GWh of solar power between April and June because the grid could not absorb or transport all the electricity being produced.
Around 21 GW of renewables relies on temporary transmission arrangements, while another 12 GW cannot export its full output because of grid constraints.
The evening net-demand ramp nearly doubled from 36 GW to 74 GW between May 2023 and May 2026, yet battery storage remains far below what is needed.
Why This Matters: India’s transition has entered a new phase where transmission, batteries, pumped hydro, flexible demand and time-based electricity pricing matter more than simply installing another field of panels.
Kismet: On the day India recorded its highest-ever electricity demand, midday power traded at just ₹1.56 per unit, roughly €0.014 or $0.017, before hitting ₹10, about €0.091 or $0.11, after sunset. Abundance and scarcity, separated by five and a half hours. 👉 Full story here
Heatwaves Expose the Myth of “Always-On” Power
The usual sneer is that renewables become unreliable when conditions get difficult. In reality, extreme heat can shut nuclear reactors, cut gas-plant output and weaken transmission lines, while solar often surges precisely when air-conditioning demand peaks, especially when batteries carry that power into the evening.
During France’s July heatwave, three nuclear reactors shut and seven more reduced output, cutting nuclear generation by almost 9%.
At 40°C, gas-fired plants can lose around 13% of their capacity and 7% of their efficiency compared with operation at 20°C.
Solar output falls slightly as panels heat up, but clear skies usually more than compensate: UK solar generation rose 46% during a four-day June heatwave, while the EU set a monthly solar record.
Why This Matters: Heat resilience is becoming a system-design issue, and solar paired with storage, interconnection and flexible demand is increasingly better matched to the conditions climate change is creating.
Kismet: The strongest heatwave performer may also be the one people most often claim “doesn’t work in hot weather” - solar, apparently unaware of the talking points.
👉 Full story here
Climate Confident:
The Professor Who Helped Save Perth’s Rail Says Fossil Fuel Giants Won’t Survive the 2040s
This week on Climate Confident, I speak with Professor Peter Newman AO - Curtin University sustainability professor, author of 26 books and 440-plus papers, former IPCC coordinating lead author on transport, cities expert, government adviser and the 2018 Western Australian Scientist of the Year. His argument is bracingly optimistic: the transition is now being driven less by climate virtue than by brutal economics, and cities are where cheap renewables, batteries, electrification and better urban design will turn that momentum into everyday reality.
Peter explains why cities, rather than national governments, are the decisive engines of climate action, and why practical hope beats fear as a political strategy.
He traces the accelerating shift from solar and EVs to electric freight, machinery, aviation and shipping, predicting that many oil, gas and coal companies will disappear during the 2040s.
We discuss transit-oriented development, walkable neighbourhoods, renewable-powered precincts and why net zero should produce cities that are cleaner, cheaper and considerably more enjoyable to inhabit.
Why This Matters: Climate progress becomes far harder to reverse once clean technology is cheaper, cities are delivering it locally and citizens discover that the replacement is simply better than what came before.
Kismet: Peter’s academic work on car dependence began after he watched car-reliant San Francisco buckle during the 1973 oil crisis while bicycle-friendly Delft carried on almost serenely - one energy shock, two cities and a five-decade career born in the contrast. 🎧 Listen to the full episode
Resilient Supply Chain:
AI Has a Brain. Supply Chains Still Need a Nervous System
This week on Resilient Supply Chain, I speak with Doron Hazan, who leads AI at Wiliot, about the blind spot hiding beneath much of today’s agentic-AI excitement: brilliant models are of limited use when they cannot see what is actually happening to products, pallets, trucks and shelves. The real competitive edge may come less from buying the cleverest model and more from building continuous, trustworthy physical-world data beneath it.
Doron explains how ambient IoT can let individual items “speak”, creating live visibility into location, temperature, condition and movement.
We examine why dashboards can look reassuringly polished while the physical supply chain underneath them has wandered off for lunch - possibly taking a truckload of KitKats with it.
He argues that humans must remain involved in consequential decisions, even as better sensing enables faster alerts, prediction and increasingly automated operations.
Why This Matters: AI cannot optimise a supply chain it cannot accurately perceive, making live physical data, sensor coverage and disciplined human oversight prerequisites for genuine autonomy.
Kismet: Doron compares connected supply chains to ensemble machine-learning models: individual sensors can be imperfect, but thousands of modest “votes” can collectively produce a far more accurate picture than one supposedly flawless source. 🎧 Listen to the full episode
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Featured Chart(s)
I love seeing Ukraine helping Russia exceed it’s net zero targets!
Australia has rolled out a huge amount of both residential and commercial battery storage, and it is having an incredible impact on the price of electricity there.
The EU could reduce oil demand significantly with a faster transition to EVs.
China is already seeing a huge reduction in oil demand as a result of the electrification of all forms of road transport
Misc stuff
This one made me chuckle!
Obligatory Trump Cartoons
How many times have we gone around this circle in the last 6 months?
No explanation necessary.
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*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***
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