Climate Strikes Back: China’s Coal Wobbles and EVs Power Ahead

Hey everyone, it’s Thursday. The storms are louder, the data is sharper, and FutureProof is back.

This week feels different.

Less “build more.”
More “prove it.”

Because climate action is moving from ambition to evidence, and from deployment to durability.

The big threads:

Plus: a new blog post on engineering energy resilience (not just decarbonisation), a Climate Confident episode on invisible emissions and perception bias, and a Resilient Supply Chain deep dive into how AI is turning sourcing into a resilience strategy.

The transition is no longer theoretical.
It’s operational.

Let’s get into it.

Courtroom Climate: Is This the Lawsuit That Forces Big Oil to Change?

In Paris a court has begun hearing a landmark case that could force to align its oil and gas production with the 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement. If successful, this would be the first time a multinational fossil fuel company is legally compelled to curb expansion based on climate science, and it could ripple far beyond France.

Key Highlights:

Why This Matters: If courts begin treating 1.5°C as a binding legal benchmark for corporate behaviour, not just states, fossil fuel expansion plans everywhere suddenly look a lot riskier.

Kismet: There are now over 3,000 climate-related court cases globally, more than double the number from a decade ago, quietly turning climate risk from a policy debate into a litigation liability. 👉 Full story here

From Storm to Subpoena: Climate Science Just Got Courtroom-Ready

Last story we looked at a fossil fuel giant in a Paris courtroom. Now here’s the science that could tighten the net.

New attribution research finds that the nine winter storms that battered Spain and Portugal were significantly intensified by human-driven warming, with rainfall up to 36% heavier in northern Iberia and around 28% heavier in the south compared to a pre-warming world.

Key Highlights:

This isn’t vague “climate made it worse” language anymore. It’s quantified. Modelled. Peer-reviewed. Increasingly precise.

And that precision matters enormously for litigation.

When courts ask whether companies contributed to “foreseeable harm,” attribution science now offers numbers, probability shifts, and counterfactual modelling. It turns abstract risk into measurable contribution.

Why This Matters: As attribution science sharpens, the legal argument that extreme weather damages are partially traceable to fossil fuel expansion becomes harder to dismiss, especially in jurisdictions already testing corporate climate accountability.

Kismet: In just the past decade, rapid attribution studies have evolved from taking years to being published within weeks of an event, fast enough to influence insurance pricing, public policy, and potentially even active court proceedings. 👉 Full story here

Iberia Strikes Back: Portugal Hits 80% Renewables

After storms supercharged by climate change and last year’s mass blackout drama, here’s the counterpoint.

In January, 80.7% of Portugal’s electricity came from renewables, the country’s best result in nine months and second-highest in Europe (behind Norway).

Hydro delivered 36.8%. Wind 35.2%. Solar 4.4%. And there were 210 hours where renewables covered 100% of national demand.

Key Highlights:

The same peninsula that just experienced climate-intensified storms is also quietly proving that decarbonised grids are economically viable, and increasingly dominant.

Why This Matters: As courts scrutinise fossil fuel expansion and attribution science quantifies climate harm, countries like Portugal are demonstrating that clean power is no longer aspirational, it’s operational and cost-competitive.

Kismet: During the April blackout, around 15 GW, roughly 60% of Spain’s demand at the time, dropped off the system in just five seconds, making it Europe’s most significant power system event in over two decades. 👉 Full story here

From Months to Minutes: Generative AI Speeds Up Medical Discovery

Generative AI just went head-to-head with human research teams, and held its own.

In a real-world test, researchers at UCSF and Wayne State asked AI systems to analyse complex pregnancy and microbiome datasets to predict preterm birth. Human teams had spent months building models. The AI? It generated working analytical code in minutes.

Key Highlights:

Preterm birth is the leading cause of newborn death globally. In the US alone, around 1,000 babies are born prematurely each day. Speeding up discovery here isn’t academic, it’s urgent.

This isn’t “AI replacing doctors.” It’s AI clearing one of the biggest bottlenecks in biomedical research: building and debugging analysis pipelines so scientists can focus on asking better questions.

Why This Matters: If generative AI can reliably compress the time between raw health data and clinical insight, it could radically accelerate diagnostics, personalised medicine, and treatment development, especially in under-resourced research environments.

Kismet: A junior research pair, one master’s student and one high school student, were able to build publishable predictive models using AI support, something that would traditionally require seasoned programmers and months of specialist effort.
👉 Full story here

Teaching the Teachers: Google’s Big AI Literacy Push

If AI is going to reshape education, teachers need to be ahead of the curve, not scrambling behind it.

Google has announced what it calls the largest initiative of its kind: free AI literacy training for all 6 million K-12 and higher education educators in the U.S., in partnership with ISTE+ASCD.

The goal? Equip teachers to use tools like Gemini and NotebookLM safely, effectively, and creatively in the classroom.

Key Highlights:

Google estimates this programme could indirectly reach over 74 million students.

There’s a quiet but important shift here. Instead of positioning AI as a shortcut for students, this initiative frames AI as a capability multiplier for educators, automating routine tasks so teachers can focus on mentorship, context, and critical thinking.

Why This Matters: AI literacy is quickly becoming foundational infrastructure, like digital literacy a decade ago. Whoever trains educators first shapes how an entire generation learns to use AI responsibly.

Kismet: The training modules are aligned with ISTE+ASCD’s “AI Ready Graduate” framework, meaning this isn’t just tool training, it’s an attempt to define what AI competence should look like for future graduates. 👉 Full story here

Instant AI? New Chip Promises 10× Speed at 10× Lower Power

If AI is going to scale without swallowing half the grid, the hardware has to change.

A startup called Taalas has unveiled a radically different AI chip architecture - one that hard-wires specific models directly into custom silicon, eliminating the traditional separation between memory and compute.

Translation: fewer bottlenecks, far less energy waste, and dramatically faster inference.

Key Highlights:

Most AI infrastructure today resembles ENIAC: room-sized, power-hungry, expensive. Taalas is betting that specialisation, custom silicon for each model, is the transistor moment for AI.

Now, caveat: this is early. The first model uses aggressive 3-bit quantisation, which introduces some quality trade-offs. But the trajectory is clear: AI inference doesn’t have to mean hyperscale data centres and adjacent gas plants.

Why This Matters: If inference becomes both ultra-fast and dramatically more energy-efficient, AI deployment shifts from centralised megacampuses to distributed, affordable infrastructure - with major implications for grid load, emissions, and cost.

Kismet: Their entire first product was built by a team of just 24 people with $30M spent, a rounding error compared to the billions being poured into brute-force AI scaling elsewhere. 👉 Full story here

Tax Policy Works: EV Uptake Cuts Transport Emissions in Australia

Sometimes policy actually does what it says on the tin.

A new analysis shows Australia’s federal Electric Car Discount, which removes fringe benefits tax on eligible EVs, helped push electric and hybrid vehicles to 13.1% of total car sales last year, delivering a 0.4% drop in transport emissions in 2025 compared to 2024.

That might sound modest. It isn’t.

Key Highlights:

Transport emissions had been one of the hardest sectors to bend downward. This is one of the first signs of real structural change.

And it’s not happening in isolation. Electricity sector emissions are also down 3.1% as renewables expand and rooftop solar outperforms expectations, making each new EV cleaner over time.

This is the virtuous loop in action: clean grids + electrified transport + smart policy.

Why This Matters: Targeted fiscal incentives can accelerate EV adoption fast enough to measurably shift national emissions, even in sectors long considered politically and technically stubborn.

Kismet: Australia now has 1,517 fast-charging sites and 4,532 charger bays, infrastructure growth that would have seemed wildly optimistic just a few years ago.
👉 Full story here

In Wildfire Country, EVs Become Backup Power Plants

There’s a persistent myth that EVs are a threat to the grid.

In California’s wildfire-prone regions, the opposite is proving true: EVs are increasingly seen as part of the solution, especially during public safety power shutoffs.

When utilities cut electricity to prevent fires, households can be left without refrigeration, medical equipment, or cooling for days. But modern EVs are essentially large batteries on wheels.

Key Highlights:

And here’s the nuance critics often miss: unlike data centres, EV charging is flexible. Most charging happens overnight or during periods of high renewable generation. That means EVs can soak up excess solar in the middle of the day, and eventually feed it back during evening peaks.

In wildfire country, that flexibility isn’t theoretical. It’s food not spoiling. It’s medical devices staying on. It’s families staying connected.

Why This Matters: EVs are not just a decarbonisation tool, they are distributed energy storage assets that can strengthen grid resilience in an era of climate-driven outages.

Kismet: California’s Energy Commission forecasts that EVs will be the largest driver of electricity demand growth through 2045, even larger than data centres. The very thing critics frame as a grid burden may become its stabilising force. 👉 Full story here

EVs Hit Escape Velocity On Three Continents

While some politicians are still debating EVs, markets have quietly moved on.

This week alone:

Three continents. Three income levels. Same direction.

This isn’t policy theatre. It’s economics.

EVs reduce fuel imports. Cut operating costs. Improve air quality. And increasingly, enhance resilience. In South Africa, electrification is solving grid instability. In India, it’s winning on affordability. In Europe, combustion engines are losing structural share.

Markets don’t debate. They optimise.

Why This Matters: Electrification has crossed from “climate solution” to “competitive advantage.” Regions building supply chains and charging infrastructure now are shaping the next industrial era. The laggards will import both the vehicles and the expertise later.

Kismet: India’s three-wheelers - arguably the most price-sensitive urban transport segment on Earth, are now majority electric. When tuk-tuks flip, you know the cost curve has turned.

The U.S. Grid Is About to Break a Record, And It’s Mostly Solar + Storage

The U.S. is expected to add 86 gigawatts of new utility-scale power capacity in 2026, the largest single-year buildout on record.

But here’s the part that really matters:

In other words, nearly four out of every five new power plants coming online are solar or batteries. Storage alone would smash previous records, jumping from 15 GW added in 2025 to 24 GW planned in 2026.

This isn’t a pilot phase. It’s capital allocation at scale. And it’s happening in the world’s largest economy.

Why This Matters: Two big shifts:

Yes, some new gas is still being built. But it’s a fraction of total additions. The centre of gravity has moved. This is what transition looks like when cost curves and deployment momentum align.

Kismet: The last time the U.S. added this much power in a single year was 2002. Back then, it was mostly gas. In 2026, it’s mostly solar and batteries. Same scale. Entirely different energy system trajectory. 👉 Full story here

Africa’s Solar Surge Is Just Getting Started

Africa installed a record 4.5 GW of solar in 2025, a 54% jump year-on-year. What was once a handful of large projects is becoming a continent-wide acceleration story. The combination of falling component costs, rising electricity demand and policy reform is changing the trajectory.

North Africa is emerging as a utility-scale powerhouse, while distributed solar gains traction in countries like Nigeria and Kenya thanks to regulatory reforms and net-metering policies.

Why This Matters: Africa is moving from marginal solar player to structural growth market. Unlike mature regions wrestling with grid saturation and slowing demand, much of the continent is building energy systems for the first time at scale. That creates a rare window where clean infrastructure can become the default rather than the retrofit. If cost curves continue to fall, Africa could become one of the defining growth engines of the global solar market this decade.

Kismet: Africa recorded the largest percentage increase in imports of Chinese solar components of any region in 2025. The world’s newest large-scale solar market may also be its fastest-growing. 👉 Full story here

Solar Diplomacy: Turkey and Saudi Double Down on Clean Power

Energy geopolitics isn’t just about pipelines anymore.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia have signed a major deal for Saudi firm ACWA Power to build 2,000 MW of solar capacity in central Turkey - enough to power around 2.1 million homes. The agreement follows a $2bn intergovernmental energy pact signed earlier this month.

Turkey is preparing to host COP31 later this year. At the same time, it remains dependent on coal and imported energy. This deal signals both diversification and strategic alignment between two major regional players.

Why This Matters: Energy partnerships are being redrawn around renewables. For Turkey, solar expansion reduces fuel import exposure and strengthens its positioning ahead of COP31. For Saudi Arabia, exporting capital and expertise in clean energy broadens its influence beyond oil. Clean power is becoming a geopolitical instrument, not just a climate solution.

Kismet: The signing ceremony took place in an Ottoman-era palace on the Bosphorus, a reminder that while energy systems change, strategic alliances are always about power. 👉 Full story here

SETI@home Isn’t Dead — It Just Narrowed the Field

Remember when your computer used to hum overnight “searching for aliens”? SETI@home may have shut down in 2020, but scientists have now finished analysing the full dataset, and they’ve narrowed 12 billion detections down to just 100 signals worth a second look.

Those 100 signals are now being re-observed using China’s FAST telescope, the largest radio telescope on Earth.

Researchers don’t expect to find ET. But the project established new sensitivity benchmarks and revealed lessons about filtering noise versus real signals, including inserting thousands of fake “birdie” signals to test their own detection pipeline.

It turns out the hardest part of searching for alien civilisations isn’t pointing the telescope. It’s sorting signal from noise.

Why This Matters: SETI@home proved that distributed computing could rival supercomputers long before cloud AI became mainstream. More importantly, it refined how we design large-scale signal searches in an era drowning in interference. Whether we’re scanning the sky or analysing genomic data, the lesson is the same: detection algorithms matter as much as raw compute.

Kismet: SETI@home expected 50,000 volunteers. It got over a million. The early internet briefly became the largest supercomputer on Earth - all in the hope that someone, somewhere, might be transmitting at 21 centimetres. 👉 Full story here

Harvesting Water From Thin Air

What if clean water didn’t need pipes, reservoirs or desalination plants?

Nobel laureate Omar Yaghi has unveiled a machine that can extract water directly from dry air using specially engineered materials, and it can produce up to 1,000 litres of clean water per day, powered solely by ultra-low-grade ambient heat.

The technology is being pitched as a resilience solution for drought-prone and hurricane-hit regions, particularly small island nations vulnerable to infrastructure failure. Unlike desalination, it avoids brine discharge and heavy energy demands.

Why This Matters: The UN recently warned we’ve entered a “global water bankruptcy era,” with billions lacking secure access to clean water. Technologies that decentralise water production - especially ones that function off-grid, could fundamentally reshape how communities prepare for climate shocks. In a warming world where droughts intensify and storms knock out infrastructure, resilience may increasingly mean manufacturing water locally.

Kismet: Yaghi grew up in a refugee community in Jordan where water arrived once every week or two. The whisper through the neighbourhood was “the water is coming.” Now he’s building machines designed so that whisper is never needed again. 👉 Full story here

Decentralised Power Is Not Enough

In my latest blog post, I dig into the IEA’s new report on energy system resilience and what Europe must learn from Ukraine’s experience under sustained attack.

Europe has largely completed Phase 1 of the transition: build renewables, electrify, decarbonise.

Phase 2 is preparedness.

Ukraine reframes energy security. It’s no longer about molecules in pipelines. It’s about electrical architecture that can absorb impact, reroute power and recover fast.

Why This Matters: A cleaner grid that fails under pressure undermines both economic stability and political support for climate action. The transition must now be engineered for survivability. Hardened infrastructure, spare parts strategy, cross-border logistics, cyber defence and microgrid capability are not optional extras. They are strategic necessities in an electrified age.

Kismet: The first confirmed cyberattack to cause a power outage happened in Ukraine in 2015, years before the full-scale invasion. The warning came early. The question is whether Europe treats it as history… or rehearsal. 👉 Full story here

Climate Confident #261: The Invisible Emissions Problem

In yesterday’s episode of Climate Confident, I sat down with climate futurist Michael Barnard to unpack electrification, maritime shipping, mass timber, and why perception is distorting the energy debate.

His opening line still lingers: coal produces 4,000–8,000 times more mass per MWh than wind… but you can’t take a picture of it.

We also dug into why China’s electrification strategy is as much about industrial dominance and energy security as climate, and how cheaper electricity becomes the lever that changes everything.

Why This Matters: The transition is no longer theoretical. Electrification reduces primary energy demand by roughly half for the same services, improves air quality, lowers system costs, and reshapes entire industries from shipping to construction. The real barrier now isn’t physics or economics. It’s psychology.

Kismet: The largest wooden structure in Europe isn’t a cabin in Scandinavia - it’s here in Seville. The Metropol Parasol, known locally as Las Setas, is proof that mass timber isn’t a niche idea. It’s already towering over us. 🎧 Listen to the full episode

Resilient Supply Chain #108: AI Is Rewriting the Sourcing Playbook

In Episode 108 of Resilient Supply Chain, I spoke with Ricky Ho, founder of SourceReady, about how AI is transforming sourcing from a relationship-driven craft into a data-driven resilience engine.

The big question: if AI helps choose your supplier, who takes the fall when it goes wrong?

We explored how procurement is moving beyond “who you know” toward “what the data shows,” and why future sourcing decisions will weigh tariff risk, transit time, geopolitical exposure and emissions alongside price.

Why This Matters: In an era of tariff volatility, climate disruption and geopolitical fragmentation, concentration risk is strategic risk. AI won’t replace procurement leaders, but it will amplify those who use it to diversify intelligently and move faster than the next shock.

Kismet: The majority of global retail giants still source 30–40% of goods from China, even as many have formal targets to reduce that dependency. The transition isn’t just technological. It’s organisational inertia meeting geopolitical reality. 🎧 Listen to the full episode

In the coming episodes I will be talking to Jonathan Doller, from Logility, and Paul Warley, CEO of Ascent Solar.

Don’t forget to follow the podcasts in your podcast app of choice to ensure you don’t miss any episodes.

Renewables taking over based on economics, not idealism!

Electric trucks now significantly outselling diesel in China. And you know, if it happens there, it won’t be long before it happens next!

Modes of transport matter!

An oldie but goodie - this made me giggle.

As an owner of two dogs, I can confirm this type of behaviour!

This dog misses nothing!

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Finally, since being impacted by the tech layoffs, I'm currently in the market for a new role. If you know someone who could benefit from my tech savvy, sustainability, and strong social media expertise, I'd be really grateful for a referral.

If you have any comments or suggestions for how I can improve this newsletter, don’t hesitate to let me know. Thanks.

*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***

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