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Hey everyone, it’s Thursday, and FutureProof is back.
This week, AI-designed viruses reach a human patient, Europe's EV sales jump 70%, Subaru abandons petrol in Europe, and microscopic miners get recruited to tackle the copper shortage.
Highlights this week:
The Stakes: The UN warns of 2.8°C warming, ecosystems approach tipping points, and fossil-fuel dependencies threaten food security.
Climate: Climate plans correlate with cheaper borrowing, while dismissed US scientists refuse to stop researching.
AI: AI uncovers critical software flaws, designs potential medical treatments, and heads for factory floors.
EVs: European sales jump 70%, and Subaru goes all-electric in Europe.
Clean energy: US renewables defy political headwinds, grid connections promise billions in savings, and UK heat pumps beat drilling on jobs and bills.
Misc & podcasts: Microbes mine copper, plus Benji Price on why faster supply chain decisions matter more than perfect forecasts.
Plenty to unpack. Let’s get into it.
Interestingly, this week's common thread is that the biggest breakthroughs aren't always about inventing something new. Sometimes they're about making existing systems dramatically smarter, cheaper and more useful.
The Stakes
The Climate Maths Just Got Worse. And So Did Our Food Supply Chain.
The UN's latest assessment is grim: we're heading for 2.8°C of warming under current policies, breaching 1.5°C is now unavoidable, and leading scientists warn that critical ecosystems are approaching dangerous tipping points. Meanwhile, a sulphur supply crisis and a damning new report on agrochemical dependency expose just how dangerously entangled our food systems remain with fossil fuels.
Key Highlights:
1.5°C is slipping away: UNEP says avoiding a temporary breach is no longer possible, while limiting the damage requires emissions cuts of 45% by 2035.
Nature is running out of road: Johan Rockström warns that accelerating warming threatens the Amazon, coral reefs and Atlantic Ocean circulation, with potentially irreversible consequences.
Food security faces a double whammy: Sulphur prices have surged nearly tenfold, squeezing fertiliser production, while a new report exposes agriculture's dependence on fossil fuels and concentrated agrochemical markets.
Why This Matters: Climate disruption, fragile supply chains and fossil-fuel-dependent agriculture are converging into a systemic threat to food security, economic stability and ecosystems.
Kismet: Amid the gloom, UNEP reports that renewable energy capacity has grown three times more than was projected back in 2015, demonstrating that technological progress can still spectacularly outperform expectations. 👉 Links Inline
Climate
Companies With Climate Plans Pay Less to Borrow. Now That's an Incentive!
Forget the ESG culture wars for a moment. New research covering nearly 8,000 companies finds that businesses publishing comprehensive climate transition plans pay, on average, 0.8 percentage points less interest on their debt - precisely the financial connection I explored with former banker Cynthia Lai on my Resilient Supply Chain podcast back in April.
Key Highlights:
Cheaper capital: Companies with detailed transition plans enjoyed borrowing rates averaging 0.8 percentage points lower than those without.
Nearly 8,000 companies: The study examined global businesses from 2016-2023, accounting for company size, sector and geography.
A financial signal, not proof: Researchers found an association, not definitive causation, and no significant improvement in profits or share prices.
Why This Matters: Credible climate strategies and reliable emissions data are becoming financial considerations, potentially affecting borrowing costs and making sustainability a boardroom issue rather than merely a reporting exercise.
Kismet: Cynthia Lai made a particularly revealing point on my podcast: if you don't provide reliable emissions data, lenders may substitute their own estimates - and those numbers might make you look considerably riskier than you actually are. 👉 Full story here
Trump Scrapped America's Climate Assessment. The Scientists Carried On Anyway.
The Trump administration dismissed scientists working on America's National Climate Assessment, but the researchers had other ideas. They've launched an independent scientific initiative, and its first paper, with 175 contributors, is already identifying critical gaps in climate research. Turns out science doesn't stop just because someone in Washington would rather it did.
Key Highlights:
175 researchers contribute: The new U.S. Climate Collection, backed by two major scientific societies, has published its first research paper.
New priorities identified: Compound disasters, AI data centre emissions, improved regional climate modelling and climate attribution feature prominently.
Independent science continues: The initiative preserves vital research that could inform future climate assessments, even without federal government support.
Why This Matters: Independent scientific institutions are helping preserve the climate knowledge communities, businesses and policymakers need to prepare for increasingly dangerous environmental risks.
Kismet: The National Climate Assessment is actually mandated by Congress every four years, meaning the assessment due in 2027 remains a legal requirement even as the researchers who would have produced it have been dismissed. 👉 Full story here
AI News
AI Helps Uncover Two Critical PHP Flaws. Millions of Websites Take Notice.
This is a big one. Security researchers at Calif, working with OpenAI and Wiz, used AI to help uncover two serious vulnerabilities in PHP that could allow attackers to execute malicious code remotely, without logging in, on vulnerable installations of platforms including WordPress, Drupal and Joomla. The flaws have now been patched, but the discovery demonstrates just how powerful AI-assisted security research is becoming.
Key Highlights:
Two major vulnerabilities: CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619 can enable unauthenticated remote code execution under affected configurations.
Popular platforms exposed: Researchers demonstrated exploits against WordPress, Drupal, Joomla, Magento, Nextcloud and several other PHP applications.
Patches released: PHP issued security fixes yesterday (21 October), with researchers urging administrators to upgrade immediately.
Why This Matters: AI is dramatically expanding what security researchers can uncover in mature software, potentially transforming vulnerability discovery while making rapid patching more important than ever.
Kismet: The investigation began with a vulnerability discovered back in 2004, and the researcher used publicly available AI models rather than privileged technology. Sometimes the breakthrough isn't a smarter machine, but knowing which 22-year-old skeleton to ask it to look for. 👉 Full story here
AI Takes on Scorpion Venom and Superbugs, and One Treatment Reaches a Patient
Now this is AI doing something genuinely useful! Anthropic's Claude has designed 17 laboratory-validated proteins that bind to dangerous scorpion toxins, while Radical Numerics has gone a step further, administering AI-designed, bacteria-killing viruses to a patient battling an antibiotic-resistant infection. Neither is a proven cure yet, but we're watching AI move from analysing biology to designing potential medicines.
Key Highlights:
Claude tackles scorpion venom: AI generated over 318,000 protein designs in just 64 hours, with 17 candidates subsequently confirmed to bind dangerous toxins in laboratory tests.
AI-designed viruses reach a patient: Radical Numerics' Omnii-1 created bacteriophages that killed a patient's drug-resistant bacteria in laboratory testing, before being administered under compassionate use.
Remarkable design efficiency: Nearly 70% of selected AI-designed phage variants remained viable despite substantial genetic changes, compared with fewer than 5% of randomly modified versions.
Why This Matters: AI could dramatically accelerate the development of affordable treatments for neglected diseases and antibiotic-resistant infections, potentially saving lives where conventional drug development has struggled.
Kismet: Traditional scorpion antivenom production involves milking thousands of scorpions, injecting their venom into horses, and harvesting antibodies from the horses' blood - a process AI-designed proteins might eventually help replace. 👉 Links Inline
This $1.5 Billion AI Startup Wants to Give Factories Their Own Claude
Former OpenAI research chief Bob McGrew has raised $230 million for Arda, valuing the startup at $1.5 billion, to bring AI agents onto the factory floor. Think Claude for manufacturing engineers: software that helps design and reconfigure production lines faster, potentially transforming how manufacturers respond to changing products, customer demands and supply chain disruptions.
Key Highlights:
$1.5 billion valuation: Arda has secured $230 million from investors including Altimeter Capital, Accel and Khosla Ventures.
Already in production: Arda's AI models have been deployed with defence technology manufacturer Anduril, with robotics next on the roadmap.
Manufacturing gets an AI copilot: The platform combines proprietary, open-source and frontier AI models to help engineers build and adapt assembly lines much faster.
Why This Matters: AI that dramatically reduces the time and cost of reconfiguring factories could make manufacturing more agile, strengthen supply chain resilience and change the economics of where products are made.
Kismet: Here's the extraordinary bottleneck Arda is attacking: according to McGrew, a human worker can learn a new production design in a day, but reprogramming the automated equipment to accommodate that same change can take three to six months. Sometimes the robots are the inflexible ones! 👉 Full story here
Electromobility
Europe's EV Sales Surge 70%. Someone Forgot to Tell the Sceptics.
Another month, another electric vehicle sales record worth celebrating! European battery-electric registrations jumped 70.3% in September, capturing 32.6% of new car sales across 17 markets. High oil prices, more affordable models and government incentives are accelerating the shift, even as some European politicians are weakening emissions rules. Talk about reading the room.
Key Highlights:
70% growth: September BEV registrations reached 300,202, taking market share to 32.6%.
Nearly 2 million sold: Year-to-date registrations reached 1.98 million, up 38.1% compared with 2025.
Major markets electrify: France hit 41.7% BEV share, Germany reached 34.6%, and Norway an extraordinary 98.8%.
Why This Matters: Europe's accelerating EV adoption demonstrates that affordability, choice and volatile fossil-fuel prices are making electrification increasingly attractive, regardless of political attempts to slow the transition.
Kismet: Ireland has quietly joined Europe's EV frontrunners, with battery-electric cars accounting for around half of September's new registrations - alongside Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands. Not bad for a country once considered hopelessly dependent on petrol and diesel! 👉 Full story here
Subaru Is Ditching Petrol Cars in Europe. Yes, That Subaru!
Hot on the heels of Europe's 70% EV sales surge, Subaru has confirmed it will stop selling combustion-engine cars in Europe by the end of 2027, leaving an entirely electric lineup from 2028. The Japanese manufacturer, famous for its distinctive boxer engines, cites EU emissions and safety regulations as the driving force. Another manufacturer discovering that electrification isn't exactly optional anymore.
Key Highlights:
Combustion engines out: The Outback disappears in 2026, followed by the Impreza, Crosstrek and Forester in 2027.
Three EVs remain: From 2028, Subaru's European lineup will comprise the Solterra, E-Outback and Uncharted, all developed with Toyota.
Independent EV technology coming: Subaru has unveiled its own electric platform, batteries and motors, with some technologies expected from 2029.
Why This Matters: Subaru's decision demonstrates how regulation and the accelerating EV transition are reshaping manufacturers' product strategies, even for brands whose identities were built around combustion-engine technology.
Kismet: Subaru has already demonstrated an electric Outback prototype packing 509 horsepower and capable of accelerating from 0–100 km/h in under four seconds. Who needs a boxer engine when your family estate car can embarrass a sports car?
👉 Full story here
Clean Energy
Trump Tried to Stop Clean Energy. Economics Had Other Ideas.
Donald Trump has slashed renewable energy incentives, stalled wind projects and repeatedly attacked clean technology. Yet America's energy transition keeps moving, with a record 45 gigawatts of new clean-energy capacity forecast for 2026, as soaring fossil-fuel prices, surging AI electricity demand and increasingly competitive renewables demonstrate that economics can be remarkably stubborn in the face of ideology. Awkward.
Key Highlights:
Renewables keep growing: US utilities generated record renewable electricity in 2025, with 45 GW of new clean capacity forecast this year.
Economics wins: Solar and wind remain among America's cheapest new electricity sources, even without subsidies, while gas-fired generation becomes increasingly expensive.
Fossil fuels backfire: Petrol prices above $4 per gallon are strengthening consumer interest in EVs, while AI data centres are driving demand for faster, cheaper electricity generation.
Why This Matters: The clean energy transition is increasingly being driven by economic competitiveness, energy security and deployment speed, making it harder to derail through political opposition alone.
Kismet: New solar and wind farms can typically be built in less than two years, while gas power stations take at least three. With AI data centres potentially consuming 12% of US electricity by 2028, fossil fuels are increasingly losing the race against the clock, not just the climate. 👉 Full story here
We Have the Clean Energy. Now We Need to Connect the Dots.
My recent Climate Confident guest Niklas Persson, CEO of Grid Integration at Hitachi Energy, has written an excellent piece for Backchannel arguing that COP31 must put electricity interconnection at the heart of climate policy. We're building renewable generation at extraordinary speed, but the infrastructure needed to move that electricity between countries is lagging badly - potentially squandering billions in savings and undermining energy security.
Key Highlights:
A global disconnect: Less than 4% of electricity crosses international borders, compared with over 40% of global oil production.
€9 billion in savings: The European Commission estimates stronger interconnection could cut Europe's annual electricity generation costs by €9 billion by 2040.
Iberia's vulnerability: Spain and Portugal have just a 2% cross-border interconnection capacity ratio, far below the EU's 10% target, highlighting the need for stronger grid resilience.
Why This Matters: Connecting electricity grids across borders could make renewable energy cheaper, reduce wasted generation, strengthen energy security and accelerate decarbonisation without requiring additional power stations.
Kismet: According to Niklas, every euro invested in European cross-border electricity interconnections could save more than two euros in generation costs. Turns out the cheapest new power plant might actually be a power line! 👉 Full story here
New North Sea Drilling Gets the Green Light. But Heat Pumps Could Deliver 45 Times More Jobs!
Just as the UK government approves production from the Jackdaw gasfield, new research from thinktank E3G suggests Britain could get considerably more economic bang for its buck by insulating homes and installing heat pumps. Its analysis finds the government's £15 billion Warm Homes Plan could save households £1 billion annually, create 50,000 jobs and boost the economy by £1.6 billion a year. Compare that with just 1,100 jobs projected for the separate Rosebank oilfield. Interesting priorities.
Key Highlights:
£1 billion off energy bills: Insulation and heat pumps could deliver annual household savings, particularly benefiting lower-income families.
50,000 new jobs: The Warm Homes Plan could create approximately 45 times more jobs than the proposed Rosebank oilfield.
Stronger economic returns: The programme could boost annual economic activity by £1.6 billion while attracting another £15 billion in private investment.
Why This Matters: Improving energy efficiency and electrifying heating can reduce household bills, create widespread employment and cut fossil-fuel dependence, delivering economic benefits that new drilling cannot guarantee.
Kismet: Here's a particularly extraordinary finding: separate research suggests Rosebank's investors could earn £1.5 billion over the field's lifetime while UK taxpayers potentially lose £258 million through tax breaks and incentives. Some bargain!
👉 Full story here
Science
Meet the Tiny Miners That Could Help Solve the World's Copper Shortage!
Forget giant excavators. The next breakthrough in copper mining might come from microscopic organisms that help extract metal from rocks. Colorado startup Endolith is deploying specially cultivated microbes at an Arizona copper mine, hoping to recover more metal from ageing deposits while reducing chemical consumption. With EVs, AI data centres and renewable energy driving copper demand skywards, I'm rather taken with the idea of putting bacteria to work!
Key Highlights:
A 10-million-tonne shortfall: Global copper supply could fall 25% short of demand by 2040.
Microbes to the rescue: Endolith aims to recover at least 10% more copper from low-grade ores using specialised microbial communities.
Less waste, more metal: Bioleaching could extend existing mines' lifespans while reducing sulphuric acid consumption, although commercial-scale results remain unproven.
Why This Matters: Extracting more copper from existing mines could ease a critical supply bottleneck for electrification, reducing the need for expensive new mines and potentially lowering mining's environmental footprint.
Kismet: Bioleaching was documented in China roughly 2,500 years ago, but today's microbes are getting an upgrade: AI-assisted analysis, DNA sequencing and what Endolith's CEO describes as a microbial training camp. Darwin meets the Olympics, underground! 👉 Full story here
Resilient Supply Chain:
Why Faster Decisions Could Beat Perfect Forecasts in Supply Chains
What if the biggest problem in supply chain planning isn't inaccurate forecasts, but how slowly organisations respond to them? In this week's Resilient Supply Chain, I spoke with Benji Price, Co-founder and Chief Product Officer at Wild Ducks, about using AI to automate routine inventory decisions, capture knowledge trapped in employees' heads, and build supply chains that can react before opportunities disappear.
Key Highlights:
Automate the 98%: Benji's vision is to automate routine planning decisions, leaving human experts to handle exceptions where their judgement matters most.
Forecast smarter: Weather, crop yields, customer contracts and other leading indicators can reveal demand shifts that historical sales data misses.
Speed beats perfection: A reasonably accurate decision made today can be more valuable than a flawless answer delivered six weeks too late.
Why This Matters: Supply chain resilience increasingly depends on connecting forecasting, inventory economics and human expertise into faster decision-making systems, rather than simply collecting more data.
Kismet: Asked who he'd choose as a champion for better forecasting, Benji picked Buzz Lightyear - because successful forecasters need a slightly delusional belief that they can keep improving, even though they'll never get everything right. To infinity and beyond, indeed! 🎧 Listen to the full episode
Don’t forget to follow the podcasts in your podcast app of choice to ensure you don’t miss any episodes.
Featured Chart(s)
Still has a long way to go, but with the economics the way they are, it is only going one direction
Shame to see the US dipping in numbers as the rest of the world electrifies, but you have to think it is a temporary setback.
On the other hand, batteries are displacing gas peaker plants in Texas (and California, and other places - though not shown in this chart)
Sea surface temps rising again due to El Niño - off the charts!
Misc stuff
With all the talk of migrants (and I being one of them), I thought this was an interesting chart.
Bear in mind - united we stand, etc.
Reminds me of fast food menu photos!
Obligatory Trump cartoons
Trump sending money to Russia
Distraction politics
Engage
If you made it this far, very well done! If you liked this newsletter, or learned something new, feel free to share this newsletter with family and friends. Encourage folks to sign up for it.
Finally, since being impacted by the tech layoffs, I'm currently in the market for a new role. If you know someone who could benefit from my tech savvy, sustainability, and strong social media expertise, I'd be really grateful for a referral.
If you have any comments or suggestions for how I can improve this newsletter, don’t hesitate to let me know. Thanks.
*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***
And Finally
This is my Dad humour!!!
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