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Hey everyone, I hope you’re well and caffeinated, because this week’s FutureProof is a rollercoaster: geopolitics shifting, fossil incumbents wobbling, clean energy sprinting, and AI… well, AI is now doing Olympiad maths while generating video that could fool your nan.
This week had a clear theme: the future keeps showing up, even in the places we stopped expecting it to.
The big five:
Europe finally cut the cord and set a hard stop on Russian gas - years later than they should have, but still a seismic demand signal.
Mark Carney’s “pipeline scandal” isn’t a scandal at all. It turns out the pipeline is basically imaginary, and the real trade was major methane cuts and a carbon price lock-in.
AI is diagnosing rare diseases, mapping wildfire risk, hunting polluters in Hanoi… and oh yes, DeepSeek and Runway just dropped models that scared the daylights out of Silicon Valley.
EV momentum keeps compounding: China’s electric HGVs are hammering diesel demand, Chinese brands continue their European surge, and Volvo/Polestar are begging Brussels not to blink on 2035.
Clean energy had a wild run: US geothermal got a political plot twist, India is forcing coal plants to bow to solar, and the UK approved its biggest floating solar farm yet.
Plus a lot more below - from perovskite tandems reshaping energy economics to supply-chain leaders admitting their biggest risk still starts with “bad data, rushed decisions.”
As ever, FutureProof is here to make one thing obvious: the world isn’t waiting for permission, it’s already mid-pivot.
If last week was fast, this one arrived like it triple-booked itself.this one arrived at full sprint and didn’t bother to stretch.
And here are this week’s stories:
Climate
Europe Finally Turns Off the Tap - Years Later Than It Should Have
The EU has at last committed to ban all Russian gas by 2027 - a move that absolutely should’ve landed in 2022, or at the latest 2025, but I’ll take “late and decisive” over “eternal foot-dragging.” This isn’t just a policy tweak; it’s Europe finally admitting that energy security and human decency both demand cutting off the Kremlin’s fossil-fuel bankroll.
Full stop by 2027, with Russian LNG gone even earlier (April 2026) - overdue, yes, but still a major geopolitical rupture.
Hungary and Slovakia got a wriggle clause, but the direction of travel is now irreversible.
Hefty fines - up to 3.5% of global turnover, for anyone trying to sneak Russian molecules back into the market.
Why This Matters: Even if the timeline is too slow for my liking, this is still a powerful demand signal - and a financial chokehold, pushing Europe deeper into renewables while starving Putin’s war machine of yet another revenue stream.
Kismet: Europe once got 40% of its gas from Russia; now it gets most from Norway and the US - proof that the supposedly “impossible” diversification was entirely doable the moment political will finally showed up. 👉 Full story here
The Pipeline That Exists Only on Paper - And Why Carney’s Deal Isn’t the Disaster Twitter Thinks It Is
Mark Carney’s been taking a hammering for supposedly trading away climate ambition in exchange for a shiny new pipeline - but peel back the outrage and you find a political sleight-of-hand: the “pipeline” is a ghost. A prop. A bargaining chip unlikely ever to see a weld, let alone a barrel. And in return, Canada quietly secured real climate gains: industrial carbon pricing locked in at $130/ton and a 75% methane-reduction commitment from Alberta. That’s not nothing, that’s structural.
The pipeline is almost certainly never being built - capital markets won’t touch it, First Nations opposition remains immovable, tanker bans still stand, and Ottawa won’t nationalise another megaproject.
Alberta gets symbolic victory language, Ottawa gets actual policy: higher carbon prices, binding methane cuts, and grid-modernisation commitments.
The “concession” looks big, but the climate retreat is small, while the policy wins are real, enforceable, and expensive for industry, exactly the kind that shift behaviour.
Why This Matters: For all the noise, this is a negotiation that traded an imaginary pipeline for climate rules that cut real emissions. It’s not perfect, but it’s far closer to progress than betrayal.
Kismet: Canada is currently subsidising Alberta’s oil to the tune of $2.5–3 billion per year - enough to fund an entire national heat-pump programme, which makes the idea of adding another doomed pipeline even more absurd. 👉 Full story here
AI News
AI Just Found 100+ New Clues for Rare Diseases — Doctors Are Calling It a Game-Changer
Harvard researchers have built a new AI model, popEVE, that effectively sorts through the chaos of a patient’s genome and highlights which mutations are most likely to be causing disease - a task that’s historically been maddeningly slow and frequently inconclusive. Now? Diagnoses that once took years may soon take days.
It ranks every variant in a genome by disease severity, allowing clinicians to focus on the mutations that actually matter.
In a cohort of 20,000 undiagnosed developmental-disorder patients, the model cracked the case in roughly one-third, stunning in this field.
popEVE uncovered 123 previously unknown disease-causing genes, 25 of which have already been independently confirmed.
Why This Matters: Rare disease diagnosis has long been a brutal combination of guesswork and heartbreak (we all watched House, right?), this model turns it into something closer to engineering: systematic, rapid, and scalable.
Kismet: One clinician in Barcelona is already using popEVE to diagnose real patients, meaning this isn’t some abstract academic breakthrough; it’s already changing lives in clinics, quietly, right now. 👉 Full story here
California Utilities Are Turning to AI Because Burying Power Lines Costs More Than a Small Moon
With undergrounding priced at a frankly ridiculous $3 million+ per mile, California utilities have started embracing AI tools that can spot the exact trees and poles most likely to ignite the next megafire. PG&E, National Grid, and others are now leaning on startups like Overstory and Rhizome to scan satellite imagery, model local grid risks, and tell crews precisely where to trim, reinforce, or replace - cutting both cost and liability in a state where a single spark can bankrupt a utility.
Power shutoff systems already prevent ~80% of potential fire starts, and AI-targeted trimming can attack the stubborn remaining risks.
Overstory raised $43 million after proving AI can outperform helicopters and field crews for vegetation risk mapping.
Rhizome’s gridFIRM model is now overturning long-held assumptions, revealing that some of the worst wildfire risks hide not in forests, but in suburbs.
Why This Matters: Wildfire season is now effectively all year; AI isn’t a silver bullet, but it’s becoming a crucial part of the defence stack - cheaper, faster, and far more scalable than digging a trench across California.
Kismet: The deadly Camp Fire and Kincade Fire - both triggered at transmission towers, could likely have been prevented by simply clearing the dry brush directly beneath the tower bases. Sometimes the future isn’t high-tech at all; it’s just knowing exactly where to send the shovel. 👉 Full story here
Hanoi Is Turning to AI to Hunt Down Polluters - Because 70,000 Annual Deaths Demand More Than Polite Requests
Hanoi’s been smothered under toxic smog for nine straight days, hitting “unhealthy” readings on the IQAir index, and the city has finally snapped: it’s rolling out AI-powered traffic cameras and remote monitoring systems to flag dirty vehicles, illegal waste burning, and construction dust before they choke the population any further. This is digital enforcement meets urban survival.
AI-integrated cameras will automatically spot smoky, expired, or high-pollution vehicles and trigger enforcement - a huge shift from manual checks.
Authorities are cracking down on burning of garbage, straw and crop waste, one of the region’s most stubborn pollution sources.
The government wants 80% of Hanoi’s days to have “good or moderate” air by 2030, starting with phasing out gas motorbikes from city centres by mid-2026. That’s only a few short months away!
Why This Matters: Air pollution kills more people annually in Vietnam than traffic accidents, and AI gives cities a way to enforce environmental rules in real time - not years after the damage is done.
Kismet: According to the UN, Vietnam’s air pollution shortens the average lifespan by 1.4 years, meaning a child born in Hanoi loses roughly the equivalent of an entire primary school year before they’ve even learned to read. 👉 Full story here
The Chinese AI Upstart That Terrified Silicon Valley Just Dropped a New Open-Source Model - And It Absolutely Slaps
DeepSeek - yes, that DeepSeek, the one that blindsided the entire AI industry earlier this year with a world-class model running on pocket change, just released DeepSeek-V3.2, and the thing is an open-source monster. We’re talking 685 billion parameters, sparse attention wizardry, agentic reasoning, Olympiad medals… all wrapped in an MIT licence like it’s no big deal.
A new sparse-attention architecture (DSA) slashes compute while keeping long-context performance razor sharp - a direct shot across the bow of the compute-hungry giants.
Their reinforced model beats GPT-5 and matches Gemini-3 Pro on reasoning benchmarks, including gold-medal performance at the 2025 IMO and IOI.
It’s fully open-source under MIT, meaning anyone - literally anyone, can run, fine-tune, or repurpose the most terrifyingly capable open model on the market.
Why This Matters: The centre of gravity in AI is shifting, fast. When a lean Chinese startup is shipping Olympiad-winning, GPT-rivaling models into the open-source commons, the incumbents can no longer rely on scale alone as their moat.
Kismet: DeepSeek didn’t just drop weights, they released the actual Olympiad solution files (maths, informatics, ICPC world finals) used to validate the model, so the community can independently verify the intelligence of an AI that already has Silicon Valley sleeping with the lights on. 👉 Full story here
Runway’s New Gen-4.5 Model Is Jaw-Dropping… and Honestly a Bit Terrifying
Runway just dropped Gen-4.5, and it’s not a minor upgrade - it’s a full-on cinematic leap. This thing generates video so realistic you could slip it between scenes of a Netflix drama and most people wouldn’t notice. It tops the global benchmark charts with 1,247 Elo points, beating every other text-to-video model on the planet. And unlike previous generations, it nails physical accuracy, consistent objects, fluid motion, and emotional nuance in characters. It’s stunning. It’s powerful. And in a post-truth world? Yeah… it’s also a double-edged sword.
Unprecedented fidelity: real physics, coherent motion, lifelike faces, materials that behave like they should — all rendered from text.
Wild stylistic range: photorealistic, cinematic, animation, slice-of-life - and it keeps characters consistent across frames.
Built with NVIDIA from top to bottom, running on Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, with enterprise partners already using it for film, advertising, and broadcast.
Why This Matters: Gen-4.5 isn’t just another creative tool - it’s a milestone in synthetic media. Amazing for filmmakers, educators, activists… but also a gift-wrapped accelerant for disinformation if we don’t get serious about provenance and digital trust.
Kismet: Runway openly admits the model still has quirks - like doors opening before handles move, or objects vanishing for a frame, meaning one of the world’s most convincing video generators is technically glitching… yet still convincing enough to fool millions at a glance. 👉 Full story here
Electromobility
China’s Grip on Europe’s Car Market Is Getting… Bigger (Even When It Looks Like It’s Shrinking)
Chinese carmakers “lost ground” in Europe in October, but don’t let the headline fool you. The dip was almost entirely because of a UK wobble; across the rest of Europe, their share kept climbing. And even with the pullback, October was still China’s second-best month in history for EVs, hybrids, and total sales. The trend line is unmistakable: China isn’t coming for the European car market. It’s already here.
EV share only slipped from 12.6% to 11.8% - still astonishingly high for brands that barely existed in Europe a few years ago.
Chery and Leapmotor are exploding, offering €19k EVs and hybrid variants Europeans actually want (because affordability matters more than heritage).
September was the real story - the month Chinese brands overtook Korean makers for the first time, driven by BYD’s aggressive UK push and Europe-wide hybrid demand. Anecdotally, the number of BYDs on the roads here in Spain has grown phenomenally in the last few years.
Why This Matters: The EU’s incumbents are staring at a structural shift - Chinese brands have mastered affordable EVs at scale, and the European market is rewarding them for it. Tariffs delay the inevitable; they don’t reverse it.
Kismet: Leapmotor’s €19,000 T03 isn’t just a cheap EV - it’s now part of a Stellantis venture, meaning one of Europe’s biggest legacy automakers is effectively helping a Chinese competitor learn the local market faster. 👉 Full story here
German Carmakers Want to Hit the Brakes - Volvo and Polestar Are Screaming: “Are Ye Mad? Keep 2035!”
Some of Europe’s legacy automakers - mostly German, mostly panicking, are lobbying Brussels to roll back the 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel cars. They claim consumers aren’t ready. They claim “technology neutrality.” They claim hybrids deserve a longer goodbye. But the CEOs of Volvo and Polestar aren’t buying a word of it. In fact, they’re saying the quiet part loudly: slowing down now is a gift-wrapped present to China.
“Pausing 2035 is just a bad, bad idea.” Polestar’s Michael Lohscheller couldn’t be clearer - delaying only widens China’s lead, because “the Chinese will not pause.”
Volvo’s Håkan Samuelsson says the logic simply doesn’t add up - EV ranges and charging times are improving fast, and costs will follow.
The Germans pushing for delay? According to the Swedes, it’s protectionism masquerading as pragmatism - and a strategy that will backfire as Chinese brands scale factories across Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and beyond.
Why This Matters: Europe is at a fork in the road. Stick to 2035, and the continent stays in the game. Blink now, and it risks hard-coding dependence on cheaper, faster-moving Chinese EV makers who are already eating everyone's lunch.
Kismet: Lohscheller has run 126 marathons — and his analogy is savage: “Do I train for a marathon and then switch to a half because it’s difficult? No.” Europe set the 2035 goal. The only way forward is to run the race. 👉 Full story here
China’s Electric HGVs Are Quietly Rewriting the World’s Diesel Demand - And the Curve Is About to Bend Harder
While diplomats waffle and legacy automakers plead for extensions, China is doing something far more consequential: electrifying heavy trucks at a pace nobody predicted - and it’s already denting global diesel demand. What was once dismissed as “too heavy, too hard, too slow” to electrify, has flipped into the world’s biggest freight disruption.
Electric heavy-truck sales in China are exploding - up 175% year-on-year in H1 2025, hitting 22% of new heavy-truck sales, with analysts projecting 46% this year and 60% next year.
This isn’t theoretical impact: China’s diesel demand dropped 11% year-on-year in June 2024, and Rhodium estimates over 1 million barrels per day of oil demand is already being avoided thanks to electric HGVs.
Rystad projects the freight sector will burn 40% less diesel by 2030, cutting China’s total diesel use by a quarter, a structural, irreversible shift.
Why This Matters: Heavy trucks are the backbone of the global economy and a third of transport emissions. If China can electrify this fast — and export these trucks from 2026 onwards, the global oil demand curve is headed for a far steeper decline than anyone modelling in 2020 would have dared publish.
Kismet: CATL’s new battery-swap network is set to cover 150,000 km of China’s 184,000 km expressway system, meaning long-haul electric freight can soon “refuel” faster than ICE trucks can queue for diesel. 👉 Full story here
Clean Energy
A Rare Bit of US Clean-Energy Sanity: Geothermal Gets Funding… Even Under Trump
Here’s something I didn’t expect to type in 2025: the Trump administration has approved $8.6 million to expand the first-in-the-nation utility-led geothermal heating and cooling network in Massachusetts. Yes, the same administration slashing billions from wind, solar, and EV programmes is greenlighting a geothermal buildout - because, of course, geothermal uses drilling rigs, steel casing, pump systems, and subsurface expertise that the oil & gas sector already sells. Sometimes the transition advances sideways.
The Framingham network will double in size, adding ~140 new customers and lowering per-unit expansion costs as the system scales.
The funding survived a DOE restructuring that killed the renewables office but kept geothermal under a new Hydrocarbons & Geothermal division.
Geothermal heat networks cut heating emissions by tapping steady 55°F subsurface temperatures, allowing heat pumps to run far more efficiently.
Why This Matters: It’s a reminder that the energy transition often succeeds through unlikely policy cracks, and that geothermal, with its oil-and-gas supply chain overlap, may become America’s most politically durable clean-heat solution.
Kismet: CATL’s battery-swap network is stealing headlines in China, but beneath Massachusetts, dozens of quietly drilled boreholes are showing the US that the clean-heat revolution doesn’t need sun or wind - just a few hundred feet of earth at the right temperature. 👉 Full story here
India Is Forcing Coal Plants to Make Space for Solar - and Honestly, It’s Brilliant
India’s solar buildout is so massive, so fast, that the grid is now struggling to absorb all the clean electricity being produced. The solution? Compel coal plants to run flexibly, even as low as 40% load (and hopefully even lower in the future), so renewables can take priority. It’s a reversal of the old script: instead of renewables making room for coal, coal is now being told to get out of the way.
The power ministry plans to mandate coal plants to operate at far lower capacity factors, even though it reduces efficiency and increases wear.
Operators must budget for software upgrades, 20% higher maintenance, and incentive payouts to support flexible operation.
This is part of a broader strategy to maximise India’s vast solar resource until grid-scale storage catches up.
Why This Matters: Flexing coal to accommodate solar is the clearest sign yet that India’s power system is entering its next phase, one where fossil assets bend around clean energy, not the other way around.
Kismet: China adopted a similar system in 2023, paying coal plants to sit idle so more renewables could flow, proof that even the world’s biggest fossil fuel consumers are learning how to choreograph their grids around sunlight. 👉 Full story here
The UK Just Approved Its Biggest Floating Solar Farm — and It’ll Power Submarines, Naturally
In a rare burst of UK climate ambition, the country has just greenlit its largest-ever floating solar farm: a 46,500-panel array moored on Cavendish Dock in Barrow, Cumbria. It’ll pump out enough clean electricity to power 14,000 homes a year, but instead it’s going straight into one of Britain’s most energy-hungry industrial clusters, including the submarine yards at BAE Systems. Floating solar meets nuclear sub-building… you couldn’t make it up.
The project, led by Associated British Ports (ABP), slots directly into local advanced manufacturing, strengthening energy security and knocking down emissions at the port.
Despite wildlife concerns, planners approved the scheme after ABP added biodiversity measures — seabird nesting rafts, floating reed beds, and new artificial habitats beneath the panels.
It’s part of a broader reinvention of the Port of Barrow, which is also gearing up to support offshore wind manufacturing.
Why This Matters: Floating solar unlocks vast new clean-energy potential by using underutilised water surfaces. Pairing it with heavy industry shows exactly how the UK can rebuild its climate credibility: clean power, local jobs, and smarter infrastructure stitched together.
Kismet: The Cavendish Dock site was once used for submarine testing - now it’ll be used to power the next generation of low-carbon shipbuilding, a neat full-circle moment in Britain’s energy story. 👉 Full story here
Science
The Best Science Books of 2025: AI Doom, Ancient Tongues, Arctic Ice, and a Dash of Nuclear Paranoia
The Guardian has dropped its list of the best science and nature books of 2025, and it’s an absolute buffet - from existential AI dread to the origins of language, to Arctic exploration without frostbite, to the messy brilliance of Francis Crick. If you needed proof that science writing is having a renaissance, this year’s lineup is it.
AI existential risk steals the show with If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies - a surprisingly readable argument that superintelligent AI might accidentally wipe us out while trying to “understand the universe.” Festive!
Environmental and historical heavyweights include Sadiah Qureshi’s Vanished, tracing extinction as a political act, and Robert Macfarlane’s Is a River Alive?, which argues (beautifully) that rivers deserve legal personhood.
For the optimists, Eric Topol’s Super Agers promises evidence-based longevity - handy if you plan to outlive the AI apocalypse, while neurologists Suzanne O’Sullivan and Masud Husain probe how the brain shapes (and misshapes) identity.
Why This Matters: Science writing is shaping public understanding of everything from climate justice to AI governance - and this year’s top books show how stories, not spreadsheets, often shift culture fastest.
Kismet: The Svalbard Global Seed Vault appears again - but in a twist: one of the highlighted books retells how Russian scientists starved to protect its ancestral seed collection during the 1941 siege of Leningrad, a reminder that the fight to safeguard biodiversity isn’t new… just newly urgent. 👉 Full story here
Latest blog post
TheSolar’s Second Sunrise: The Next Decade Will Be Wilder Than the Last Four
I finally wrote the piece I’ve been hinting at for months, a deep dive into why solar’s real transformation isn’t behind us… it’s ahead. Costs have collapsed 99%, tandem perovskites are about to rip open the efficiency ceiling, and business models like PPAs are turning solar from “infrastructure” into a strategic operating system for the whole economy. We’re not in the solar century, we’re in its opening credits.
Solar added 452 GW last year, more than Africa’s annual electricity consumption.
Perovskite-silicon tandems push efficiency toward 30%, a step-change equal to discovering a new oil field every few months, without the emissions.
PPAs and solar-plus-storage are rewriting corporate energy strategy, turning clean power into a resilience, affordability, and competitiveness weapon.
Why This Matters: The next decade of solar isn’t incremental - it’s systemic, touching everything from AI’s hunger for electrons to national resilience and industrial competitiveness.
Kismet: At today’s efficiency trajectories, the world could meet all its electricity needs using less land than France - a statistic teenage-me, hauling blocks on Ireland’s first solar station in 1982, would’ve laughed off as sci-fi. 👉 Full story here
Climate Confident:
Perovskites Are About to Flip the Solar Industry - And Aaron Thurlow Says the Step-Change Is Already Here
This week on Climate Confident I sat down with Caelux’s Aaron Thurlow — a 25-year solar veteran who’s seen the whole arc of the industry - and his message is startlingly clear: silicon is tapped out, perovskite tandems are the future, and the first commercial shipments have already begun. We’re talking 5–6 absolute efficiency-point gains in a single product cycle, something silicon took 50 years to achieve.
Perovskite-silicon tandems unlock 30%+ efficiency, a step change that slashes system costs, land use, and LCOE all at once.
Caelux has shipped its first commercial Active Glass, with more deployments coming in 2026 - meaning this is no longer lab chatter; it’s entered the market.
Higher efficiency = lower carbon footprint + faster fossil displacement, accelerating both climate action and grid economics precisely when AI and manufacturing demand are exploding.
Why This Matters: If you want a strong economy, you need power - and perovskite-tandem solar looks like the cheapest, fastest, most scalable power source humanity has ever built.
Kismet: A teenage me once hauled blocks on Ireland’s first solar installation in the 80s - modules that cost ~$15 per watt; Aaron now expects tandems to push efficiency so high that, within a decade, 30+% solar efficiency will be the default. A full-circle moment I never saw coming. 🎧 Listen to the full episode
Resilient Supply Chain:
Your AI Is Useless If Your Data Is Rubbish - SCIP’s Andy Kohm on Fixing Supply Chains at the Root
This week on Resilient Supply Chain I spoke with Andy Kohm, co-founder and CEO of SCIP, and he delivered the blunt truth most execs tiptoe around: bad data is still the silent killer of modern supply chains. Companies are throwing AI, control towers, and dashboards at the problem, but if the underlying data is contradictory, stale, or duplicated, all you’re doing is “making bad decisions faster,” as Andy puts it. And he’s right.
Data quality is the real disruption: contradictory part specs, mismatched lead times, multiple vendor records - all of it quietly derails planning and resilience.
According to Andy, SCIP stitches every system together, cleans, validates, enriches, and actually connects part-level, BOM-level, and supplier-level truth into one usable view.
AI is helpful - but only with clean data; otherwise it hallucinates, miscalculates, or worse… confidently automates your next disaster.
Why This Matters: Without reliable data, you can’t plan, you can’t source, you can’t forecast, and you absolutely can’t build a resilient supply chain, no matter how many tools you bolt on.
Kismet: One SCIP customer was paying 10× market price for a part on the grey market during COVID, until clean data revealed dozens of viable alternatives. Proof that resilience doesn’t always require heroics; sometimes it just needs the truth.
🎧 Listen to the full episode
Coming Soon to the podcasts
In the coming episodes I will be talking to Oliver Gunasekara, Founder and CEO of Impossible Metals, and Yeelen Knegtering, Founder and CEO of Klippa.
Don’t forget to follow the podcasts in your podcast app of choice to ensure you don’t miss any episodes.
Featured Chart(s)
Woohoo!!!
Despite his best efforts, there are a LOT of renewable energy projects underway in the US. You can’t fight the economics.
Misc stuff
This one is non-intuitive (and the colours used here don’t help), but the relationship between speed, and time to get to your destination is not linear!
I will be vindicated one day. You’ll see!
This is how you represent data beautifully!
When even nature is turning on Tesla…
Engage
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*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***
And Finally
Apparently daylight savings time causes droughts!
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