Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Upsell is Doomed – Here’s Why

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Hey everyone, welcome to the fourth edition of FutureProof - my Tech and Sustainability Digest of 2025.

Between climate legislation being gutted, Ukraine being sold down the river, and proclamations of monarchy, the news has been tough going of late. Fortunately, I happened across some very cool stories in the tech and climate space to brighten your day. If that sounds like something you need, read on. And share with anyone else you feel could do with a little brightening up!

In the News:

Quantum Computing

Microsoft Just Created a New State of Matter—Quantum Computing Will Never Be the Same
This is one of the biggest tech breakthroughs in years. Microsoft has achieved what was once pure sci-fi: they’ve created a new state of matter—topological superconductors—to build their Majorana 1 quantum chip. This makes quantum bits (qubits) dramatically more stable, solving a key problem that’s held quantum computing back for decades. The implications? Mind-blowing. We’re talking revolutionising drug discovery, slashing energy waste, tackling climate modelling, and solving problems today’s supercomputers can’t even touch.

But here’s the kicker—this isn’t just a win for science; it’s a wake-up call for cybersecurity. Quantum computing at scale could crack encryption methods that secure everything from online banking to national security systems. Microsoft is already working on quantum-safe encryption, but this breakthrough means everyone will need to rethink digital security. If the Majorana qubits hold up in real-world testing, we’re looking at a future where quantum supremacy isn’t just possible—it’s imminent.

Kismet: "Majorana" isn’t just a physics breakthrough—it’s also the name of a herb (marjoram). One changes the flavour of your food, the other might just change the foundation of our digital world.

Artificial Intelligence

Google's AI 'Co-Scientist' Set to Revolutionise Biomedical Research
Google has just taken AI-powered research to the next level with an experimental lab assistant that could help scientists make faster discoveries in biomedicine. This system analyses massive datasets, suggests experiments, and speeds up research in ways that were previously impossible. If it works as promised, it could transform drug discovery, disease modelling, and even personalised medicine—helping researchers get from theory to treatment far quicker than before.

Of course, letting AI into the lab raises big questions. Will scientists rely too much on automated suggestions? Could AI-driven research introduce new biases or blind spots? The benefits could be enormous, but like any disruptive technology, it comes with risks. One thing’s certain: the fusion of AI and science is moving faster than ever, and this could mark a major shift in how discoveries are made.

Kismet: Interestingly, the concept of a 'co-scientist' isn't entirely new. In the 1960s, Nobel laureate Richard Feynman envisioned computers as partners in scientific discovery, capable of handling complex calculations to free up human minds for deeper insights. Google's latest innovation brings Feynman's vision closer to reality, blending human ingenuity with artificial intelligence to push the boundaries of what's possible in research.

Electromobility

BYD Just Took a Sledgehammer to Tesla’s Self-Driving Business Model
BYD , the world’s largest EV maker by sales, has just made a move that has sent shockwaves through Tesla’s pricing strategy—every new BYD model, including the ultra-cheap $9,500 Seagull, will come with self-driving capability built in. Meanwhile, Tesla is still trying to convince customers to fork out an extra $8,000 (or more) for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package, on top of the price of the car. This is a massive shift in the industry—BYD is making advanced driver-assist tech a standard feature, not a luxury add-on.

Tesla’s business model hinges on software upsells like FSD, but BYD is throwing that playbook out the window. If drivers can get self-driving features at no extra cost in a car that’s already cheaper than Tesla’s lowest-end model, why would they pay a premium? This isn’t just competition—it’s a direct challenge to Tesla’s strategy, and it could force the entire industry to rethink how self-driving is sold.

Kismet: The Seagull, BYD’s cheapest EV, comes with self-driving hardware included—yet Tesla’s FSD package alone costs almost as much as an entire Seagull. That’s not just disruptive, it’s a paradigm shift.

Think EV Batteries Die Like Your Phone’s? Think Again—New Study Proves They Last
A lot of people assume EV batteries degrade as quickly as the ones in their phones or laptops, losing capacity after a couple of years. This study proves that’s completely wrong. New research shows that EV batteries retain up to 99% of their health even after 120,000 km, with Hyundai and BYD leading the pack. This isn’t just luck—it’s down to huge improvements in battery tech year after year and stronger regulations like the EU Battery Regulation, which mandates an 8-year or 160,000 km minimum warranty. EV batteries aren’t just holding up; they’re exceeding expectations.

This is a game-changer for sceptics worried about longevity and resale value. If an EV battery is still in great shape after 120,000 km, that means second-hand EVs will be a far better long-term investment than many expected. The myth that EV batteries wear out quickly has just been blown apart—and as tech keeps improving, the numbers will only get better.

Kismet: If smartphone batteries lasted like EV batteries, you’d still be using your old Nokia 3310

Hyundai's 'Dream' Battery: A Leap Towards Next-Gen EVs
And speaking of batteries, Hyundai is set to unveil its all-solid-state 'Dream' EV battery pilot line next month, marking a significant milestone in electric vehicle technology. These advanced batteries promise increased range, faster charging times, and enhanced energy density, potentially transforming the EV landscape.

The pilot line, located at Hyundai's research center in Uiwang, South Korea, will commence full-scale production in March. Industry insiders anticipate that a prototype vehicle equipped with these new batteries could debut by the end of 2025. Hyundai aims for mass production of all-solid-state batteries by 2030, with the first EVs featuring this technology arriving shortly thereafter.

Kismet: In a strategic move, General Motors representatives are expected to attend Hyundai's unveiling ceremony, highlighting the growing collaboration between major automakers in advancing EV technology.

China's EV Surge: Electric Cars set to Outsell Petrol Vehicles
China is set to make history this year, with electric vehicle (EV) sales projected to surpass those of traditional petrol-powered cars. This monumental shift is happening a full decade ahead of Beijing's original 2035 target, underscoring China's rapid adoption of clean energy transportation.

This acceleration not only positions China as a global leader in the EV market but also highlights the effectiveness of its policies and consumer incentives promoting sustainable mobility. As the West grapples with its own transition timelines, China's achievement serves as a compelling case study in orchestrating large-scale shifts towards greener transportation solutions.

Kismet: This isn’t the only clean energy goal China is smashing ahead of schedule—last year, the country also hit its 2030 renewable energy targets five years early. If that’s the pace they’re setting, the rest of the world has some serious catching up to do.

Clean Energy

Saudi Arabia, the Oil Giant, Just Signed the Biggest Battery Deal Ever—Renewables Are Unstoppable
When even Saudi Arabia—the world’s biggest oil exporter—is pouring billions into battery storage, you know the energy transition is unstoppable. The Kingdom just signed the largest battery storage deal in history with China’s BYD, securing 12.5GWh of energy storage across five sites. This isn’t just a side project—it’s part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan to get 50% of its electricity from renewables. If even the petro-state-in-chief is going all-in on batteries to stabilise its growing fleet of solar and wind farms, what excuse do fossil-fuel holdouts have left?

Anyone still backing away from renewables at this stage is fighting a losing battle. Oil’s biggest backer is future-proofing itself—because they see where the market is going. If Saudi Arabia is betting on batteries and clean energy, only a fool would bet against it.

Kismet: In a twist no one saw coming a decade ago, Saudi Arabia is now deploying large-scale batteries to help phase out fossil fuels—while the Trump administration is doubling down on fossil fuels, gutting clean energy projects, handing China the future on a plate.

China's Bold Energy Storage Move: Building a 1.2 GWh Compressed Air Facility
And speaking of China, the country is taking a significant step in novel energy storage by constructing a 300 MW/1.2 GWh compressed air energy storage (CAES) facility in Xinyang, Henan province. This $300 million project, backed by a state-led consortium, is notable for its use of a fully artificial underground cavern—the first of its kind in the country. Scheduled for completion by the end of 2026, this facility aims to enhance grid stability and support the integration of renewable energy sources.

Kismet: While lithium-ion batteries dominate the energy storage conversation, China's investment in CAES technology highlights a diversified approach to large-scale energy storage solutions.

China's Oil Demand Nears Its Peak Amidst EV Boom and Economic Shifts
China, long a cornerstone of global oil consumption growth, is approaching a pivotal turning point. Recent analyses indicate that the nation's oil demand is on the verge of peaking, driven by a confluence of factors including a rapid transition to electric vehicles (EVs), economic deceleration, and a structural shift towards cleaner energy sources. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a marginal decline in China's fuel consumption in 2024, with combined usage of gasoline, gasoil, and jet fuel standing at 8.1 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels per day lower than in 2021. This trend suggests that China's oil demand may plateau by the end of this decade.

The surge in EV adoption is a significant contributor to this shift. In recent months, sales of electric and hybrid vehicles in China have surpassed those of internal combustion engine vehicles, leading to a reduction in gasoline and diesel demand. Additionally, the rise of liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fueled trucks is displacing traditional diesel-powered freight, further dampening oil consumption. While the petrochemical sector continues to drive some demand, it is unlikely to offset the overall decline resulting from the transportation sector's move away from oil.

Kismet: In a striking reversal, China's oil imports experienced a nearly 2% decline in 2024—the first drop in two decades—signaling a monumental shift in the global energy landscape.

Latest Publications

Blog

Europe's Energy Transition Speeds Ahead—But Can Infrastructure Keep Up?
In this my most recent blog post, I analysed Ember’s 2025 European Energy Review which confirms Europe's shift to renewable energy is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. In 2024, solar energy generation in the EU reached 304 TWh, surpassing coal's 269 TWh and marking a significant milestone in the continent's energy landscape. Renewables now contribute to nearly half of Europe's electricity supply, leading to a substantial reduction in emissions from power generation, which have fallen to less than half of their 2007 peak. This rapid adoption has also resulted in economic benefits, with wind and solar energy saving approximately €59 billion in fossil fuel imports since 2019.

However, this swift progress brings forth challenges that could impede further advancement. The existing energy infrastructure, particularly in terms of storage and grid capacity, is struggling to accommodate the variable nature of renewable sources. The EU's current battery storage capacity stands at 16 GW, predominantly concentrated in Germany and Italy, which is insufficient to balance supply and demand effectively. Additionally, outdated grid systems and bureaucratic hurdles in permitting processes are causing delays in the deployment of new renewable projects, especially in the wind energy sector. To sustain and enhance this momentum, Europe must prioritise policy reforms, invest in grid modernisation, and expand storage solutions to create a resilient and flexible energy system.

Kismet: While Europe's renewable energy surge is commendable, the continent faces a paradox where its aging infrastructure and regulatory frameworks may become the very obstacles to its green ambitions. Addressing these issues promptly is crucial to prevent the current momentum from stalling.

Climate Confident

Decarbonisation, Disruption & The Future of Energy – A Deep Dive with Jarand Rystad
In this episode of the Climate Confident podcast, I sat down with Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy, to explore whether the world is moving fast enough to decarbonise. Jarand laid out a compelling case for how renewables, battery storage, and new energy tech aren’t just good for the climate—they’re now the cheapest energy options available. We also tackled the China paradox—how the world’s biggest coal consumer is also leading the charge on renewables—and why fossil fuel demand may peak sooner than many expect.

But despite the momentum, big challenges remain. Sustainable aviation fuel, long-duration energy storage, and policy roadblocks could slow things down if not addressed. Jarand’s take? The transition isn’t just about climate targets—it’s about economics. Clean energy is winning because it makes financial sense, and that shift is only going to accelerate. Listen now to get the full picture of what’s next for energy.

Kismet: The biggest driver of the energy transition isn’t climate policy—it’s the fact that renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels in most of the world. Markets, not just governments, are pushing this shift forward.

Sustainable Supply Chain

AI, Supply Chains, and the Sustainability Challenge: A Data-Driven Approach
In the latest episode of the Sustainable Supply Chain podcast, I had an insightful conversation with LatentView’s Sunder Balakrishnan about the transformative role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in enhancing supply chain sustainability. We delved into how AI-driven data analytics are revolutionising supply chains by improving efficiency, reducing waste, and promoting environmental responsibility. The discussion highlighted real-world applications where AI optimises logistics, predicts demand with remarkable accuracy, and identifies opportunities for circular economy practices, turning waste into valuable resources.

However, integrating AI into supply chains isn't without its challenges. We explored concerns such as data privacy, the need for significant technological infrastructure, and the importance of aligning AI initiatives with overarching sustainability goals. The expert emphasised that while AI offers powerful tools for sustainability, its success largely depends on human oversight, ethical considerations, and a commitment to continuous improvement. This episode sheds light on the critical intersection of technology and sustainability, offering valuable insights for organisations aiming to build smarter, greener supply chains.

Kismet: Interestingly, while AI enhances supply chain efficiency, it also raises environmental concerns due to the significant energy consumption of data centres. Innovative solutions, such as underwater data centres using seawater for cooling, are being explored to mitigate AI's environmental footprint.

In upcoming episodes of the podcasts I will be talking to Dr Gemma Green, Founder and Exec Chair of PowerLedger, Shannon Payne, SVP Supply Chain MDSi, and Puja Balachander, Founder and CEO of UpGreen.

Don’t forget to follow the podcasts in your podcast app of choice to ensure you don’t miss any episodes.

Featured Charts

The global rollout of solar is growing at an exponential pace. I’m hesitant to use that term as it so so often mis-used, but in this case it is true!

Sales of internal combustion engines peaked in 2018 and EVs are now taking an increasing percentage of the sales year on year.

Is ethanol from corn a sustainable form of transportation when used in internal combustion cars? Nope.

While the US may be backpedalling furiously on its climate commitments, individual states are still going ahead with theirs, to the relief of many!

Misc stuff

Saw this online. Made me smile!

Tank Man - the 2025 version!

Engage

If you made it this far, well done! If you liked this newsletter, or learned something new, feel free to share this newsletter with family and friends. Encourage folks to sign up for it.

Finally, since being impacted by the tech layoffs, I'm currently in the market for a new role. If you know someone who could benefit from my tech savvy, sustainability, and strong social media expertise, I'd be grateful for a referral.

Finally

How to scare off burglars with a sweet tin!

If you have any comments or suggestions for how I can improve this newsletter, don’t hesitate to let me know. Thanks.

*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***

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