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Hey everyone, it’s Thursday, and FutureProof is back.
The title this week is: Putin’s Oil Problem, Europe’s EVs Surge, and ChatGPT Goes to the Doctor.
After taking last week off, I’ve returned to discover that the world, rather inconsiderately, refused to pause. Russia’s biggest strategic asset is increasingly looking like its Achilles’ heel, Europe keeps buying EVs at record pace, China continues to sprint ahead on clean energy, and ChatGPT is now reading health records and helping scientists chase the next breakthrough.
This week’s edition is a little lighter than usual as I’m just back from holidays. There’s also a small matter of a mountain of unread emails demanding my attention. I suspect at least some of them are important.
Highlights this week:
Climate & energy: China unveils an ambitious new five-year clean energy plan, coal falls below half of China’s electricity mix for the first time, fusion attracts another $1 billion, and European solar reaches a historic milestone.
AI: Microsoft unveils a specialist cybersecurity model, while OpenAI pushes ChatGPT further into healthcare and scientific research.
EVs: European EV sales continue to accelerate, and California doubles down on electrification despite Washington heading in the opposite direction.
Geopolitics: Ukraine is turning Russia’s oil infrastructure from a strategic strength into an increasingly expensive liability.
Podcasting: A pleasant surprise - Buzzsprout’s Buzzcast podcast devoted an entire episode to discussing my podcast workflow after 800 episodes. It’s not every day your podcast host turns you into the podcast.
Right. Time to tackle that inbox.
Let’s get into it.
Climate
China’s Next Five Years Could Reshape the Global Energy Race
China has just unveiled its 15th Five-Year Plan for renewables, and the message is unmistakable: it’s no longer satisfied with simply building more wind and solar. The focus has shifted to making clean energy dependable enough to replace fossil fuels at scale, while simultaneously positioning China as the country that intends to lead global climate action, not merely participate in it.
Key highlights:
China is targeting 3,500GW of renewable capacity by 2030 (for context 1GW is roughly the equivalent of a nuclear reactor), including more than 2,800GW of wind and solar, after smashing its previous 2030 target six years ahead of schedule.
The plan prioritises grid-friendly, reliable renewables, with new targets for firm capacity, energy storage, industrial electrification, and renewable hydrogen, signalling a move from “build more” to “run the economy on it”.
Beijing is also making an explicit geopolitical play, saying it intends to take a leading role in global climate governance while expanding exports of Chinese clean technologies and promoting freer trade in green products.
Why This Matters: China is increasingly treating clean energy as industrial strategy, energy security, and foreign policy all rolled into one, and that combination could prove far more consequential than any single climate pledge.
Kismet: One of the most overlooked parts of the plan isn’t about electricity at all. China wants renewable energy to power steelmaking, chemicals, cement and industrial heat, recognising that decarbonising heavy industry, not just the grid, is where the next climate battle will be won. 👉 Full story here
China’s Coal Era Just Crossed a Historic Tipping Point
It’s one thing to publish an ambitious climate plan (see above). It’s another to produce the numbers that prove it’s happening. For the first time ever, less than half of China’s electricity came from coal, while renewables supplied more than 40% of the country’s power - a milestone that would have seemed wildly optimistic just a decade ago.
Key highlights:
Coal’s share of China’s electricity generation fell to 49.7% in the first half of 2026, marking the first time it has dropped below 50%.
Renewables generated more than 40% of China’s electricity, with wind and solar alone providing nearly one-quarter of total power.
The next challenge isn’t building more renewables, it’s expanding the grid. China is increasing investment in transmission infrastructure by 14% and energy storage by 74% to keep pace with its clean-energy boom.
Why This Matters: China’s emissions won’t disappear overnight, but when the world’s biggest coal user reaches a milestone like this, it shifts the global energy conversation from whether the transition is happening to how quickly it can accelerate.
Kismet: Coal generation is still rising because China’s electricity demand is exploding, driven by EV charging, data centres and advanced manufacturing. But the more revealing metric is how often coal plants run: average utilisation has fallen from around 60% in 2011 to roughly 48% in 2025, and analysts expect it to keep declining as coal increasingly serves as backup for wind and solar rather than baseload generation. 👉 Full story here
AI News
Microsoft Thinks AI Just Hired Your Next Security Analyst
Microsoft has unveiled MAI-Cyber-1-Flash, a specialist AI security model that isn’t trying to be everything to everyone. Instead, it’s laser-focused on cybersecurity, outperforming leading frontier models on benchmark tests while promising to deliver those results at roughly half the cost.
Key highlights:
MAI-Cyber-1-Flash is purpose-built for cybersecurity and powers Microsoft’s new MDASH security platform.
On Microsoft’s CyberGym benchmark, the model scored 95.9%, comfortably ahead of leading general-purpose AI models, which clustered around 83–85%.
Microsoft says the goal is to deliver world-class cyber defence at roughly half the cost, making advanced AI security accessible to far more organisations.
Why This Matters: The AI race is shifting from ever-larger general models towards specialised systems that solve one problem exceptionally well, and cybersecurity is rapidly becoming one of the most valuable proving grounds.
Kismet: There’s a delicious irony here. AI is creating an explosion of increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, but it’s also becoming our best defence against them. We’re entering an era where AI agents will increasingly be fighting other AI agents while humans supervise from the sidelines. 👉 Full story here
OpenAI Targets Two Frontiers: Personal Health and Scientific Discovery
OpenAI made two seemingly separate announcements this week, but together they point in the same direction. ChatGPT is evolving beyond a chatbot into a personal health assistant and a serious scientific collaborator, one capable of understanding your health one moment and helping solve tomorrow’s research breakthroughs the next.
Key highlights:
Health in ChatGPT is rolling out to US users, allowing people to securely connect Apple Health and supported medical records so ChatGPT can explain lab results, identify trends, and help prepare for medical appointments - all without using that data to train AI models or target ads.
OpenAI is also launching ChatGPT for Academic Researchers, giving 100,000 scientists, engineers and mathematicians free access to frontier AI models, Codex, and advanced research tools through 2027.
Together, the announcements show OpenAI pushing AI into two very different, but equally high-value domains: personal healthcare and scientific discovery.
Why This Matters: AI is moving beyond answering questions. It’s becoming infrastructure, helping individuals make better decisions while accelerating the pace of scientific progress.
Kismet: Every week, more than 300 million people already ask ChatGPT health-related questions, while around 1.3 million researchers use it for advanced science and mathematics. OpenAI isn’t just making ChatGPT smarter, it’s embedding it into two of the most knowledge-intensive parts of society. 👉 Links Inline
Electromobility
Europe’s EV Boom Is Picking Up Speed
Europe’s electric car market isn’t just growing, it’s accelerating. Battery EV sales jumped more than 40% in the first half of 2026, and by June, one in every four new cars sold across much of Europe was fully electric, showing the transition is gathering pace despite political headwinds.
Key highlights:
Battery EV sales across the EU rose 40.5% in the first half of 2026, reaching 1.22 million vehicles and lifting market share from 15.6% to 20.7%.
Across 17 major European markets, EVs captured 25.6% of new registrations in June, with monthly sales surging 39.5% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, fossil-fuel cars continued their decline: petrol registrations fell 17.2%, diesel dropped 16.5%, and together they now account for less than 30% of new EU car sales.
Why This Matters: Europe’s EV transition has moved beyond early adopters. The real story now is that electric cars are steadily replacing petrol and diesel as the default choice for an increasing share of buyers.
Kismet: Ireland quietly crossed a remarkable milestone in June, with more than half of all new cars sold being fully electric. Norway may still dominate, but the next phase of Europe’s EV revolution is spreading far beyond the usual frontrunners. 👉 Full story here
California Hits the EV Accelerator While Washington Slams on the Brakes
The Trump administration may be dismantling federal EV support, but California has decided to double down. Faced with soaring petrol prices and the loss of federal tax credits, the state is launching a new rebate programme to keep the transition moving, and early signs suggest it’s working.
Key highlights:
California’s new MyFirstEV programme offers instant rebates of $3,500 on new EVs and $1,750 on used EVs, making the savings immediate rather than waiting for a tax refund.
EVs accounted for 19.1% of new car sales in California during the second quarter of 2026, the state’s strongest performance since federal tax credits were scrapped.
The programme is backed by $135 million in state funding, matched by 13 automakers, and specifically targets people buying their first electric vehicle.
Why This Matters: California is demonstrating that states can continue driving the EV transition even when federal policy heads in the opposite direction, and high petrol prices are making the economic case for electrification stronger than ever.
Kismet: One of the smartest parts of the scheme is that it includes used EVs. That’s where the next wave of adoption will come from, opening electric driving to households that could never justify the price of a brand-new car and helping create a genuinely mass-market transition. 👉 Full story here
Clean Energy
Fusion Just Landed Its Biggest Vote of Confidence Yet
Fusion power is still years away from commercial reality, but investors are behaving as though it’s crossed an important threshold. Commonwealth Fusion Systems has raised another $1 billion, and what’s striking isn’t just the size of the cheque, it’s who’s writing it.
Key highlights:
Commonwealth Fusion Systems has secured $1 billion in fresh funding, bringing its total funding to $4 billion, around 30% of all private fusion investment ever raised.
The latest investors include pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, industrial partners and infrastructure investors, signalling that fusion is beginning to attract mainstream institutional capital rather than relying solely on billionaire backers.
The company has completed around 80% of its demonstration reactor, expects to switch it on next year, and is already planning its first commercial power plant in Virginia.
Why This Matters: Fusion remains a high-risk technology, but the money flowing into it suggests investors increasingly believe the question is no longer if it can work, but when it becomes commercially viable.
Kismet: The most interesting milestone isn’t the funding itself, it’s the shift in who is investing. When pension funds and infrastructure investors start backing a technology, it’s often a sign they see a credible path from ambitious science project to long-term commercial asset. 👉 Full story here
Europe’s Solar Surge Just Hit Another Milestone
Europe’s solar boom keeps rewriting the record books. For the first time ever, one quarter of all EU electricity came from solar in June, making it the bloc’s largest single source of power and underlining just how quickly the energy transition is accelerating.
Key highlights:
Solar generated a record 52 TWh of electricity in June, supplying 25% of all EU power up from 23% just a month earlier and the first time it has reached the one-in-four mark.
Solar overtook every other source of electricity, ahead of nuclear (21%), gas (15%), wind (14%), hydro (12%) and coal (8%).
Eighteen EU countries set new monthly solar records this year, including Spain, where solar provided 34% of electricity in June, and Germany, which reached 36%.
Why This Matters: Solar is no longer an emerging technology. It’s becoming the backbone of Europe’s electricity system, reducing fossil fuel imports while helping keep the lights on during record summer heatwaves.
Kismet: Back in June 2021, solar supplied just 10% of EU electricity. Five years later, it has more than doubled its share, helped by the installation of 65 GW of new solar capacity in 2025 alone - proof that the technologies that scale fastest often end up changing the system fastest. 👉 Full story here
War
Putin’s Energy Weapon Is Becoming Russia’s Biggest Weakness
For years, Russia’s oil industry was one of the Kremlin’s greatest strategic assets. Now it’s becoming one of its biggest liabilities. Ukraine has shifted from simply setting refineries on fire to systematically disabling the critical equipment that keeps them running, turning Russia’s fossil fuel infrastructure into a growing strategic vulnerability.
Key highlights:
Ukrainian drone strikes are now targeting hard-to-replace refining equipment rather than storage tanks, keeping facilities offline for weeks or even months instead of days.
Financial Times analysis found the campaign has knocked out more than 30% of Russia’s actual refining capacity and around 45% of nominal capacity, contributing to Russia’s worst fuel crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Ukrainian engineers are exploiting detailed knowledge of Soviet-designed refinery layouts to identify the components whose loss causes the greatest disruption, while repeated follow-up strikes prevent repairs from restoring production.
Why This Matters: Wars have a habit of exposing the hidden weaknesses of energy systems. Russia expected oil and gas to finance its war indefinitely. Instead, the infrastructure behind those exports has become one of the conflict’s most vulnerable targets.
Kismet: I’ve joked on social media that Ukraine is helping Russia exceed its decarbonisation targets. Behind the gallows humour lies a serious lesson: fossil fuel infrastructure is concentrated, expensive and surprisingly fragile. A handful of well-targeted drones can disable assets worth billions, something that’s far harder to do to millions of distributed solar panels, wind turbines and batteries. 👉 Full story here
Latest Publications
When Your Podcast Host Turns You into the Podcast
I didn’t publish any new blogs or podcasts during my holiday, but I couldn’t resist sharing this. Buzzsprout - the company that hosts both my podcasts, dedicated an entire episode of its own Buzzcast podcast to discussing my podcast workflow after more than 800 episodes (which I wrote up recently in this blog post). Hearing people whose work I genuinely admire dissect my process, quote my writing, and recommend it to thousands of podcasters was equal parts surreal and deeply gratifying.
Key highlights:
The Buzzcast team explored how I treat podcasting as a media supply chain, where bottlenecks, quality control, resilience and continuous improvement matter just as much as they do in manufacturing.
They highlighted my argument that consistency comes from removing friction, not relying on willpower, along with the importance of guest preparation, resilient workflows, and choosing tools that don’t let you down when deadlines loom.
One theme they returned to repeatedly was that great customer support is a feature, not an afterthought, something I’ve long appreciated about Buzzsprout and one of the reasons I’ve stayed with them.
Why This Matters: Sometimes the best validation comes from your peers. Having one of the podcast industry’s most respected teams spend an entire episode analysing my workflow was a reminder that the principles of resilience and continuous improvement apply just as much to creating content as they do to supply chains.
Kismet: One quote from my blog clearly struck a chord with the Buzzcast team: “Heroics are a poor operating model. If a publishing system depends on repeated last-minute rescue missions, it’s not a system, it’s theatre with a deadline.” Judging by the discussion, that idea resonates well beyond podcasting. 👉 Check out the episode here
Featured Chart(s)
Way to go Germany!
Sad to see the US plateauing, while the rest of the world ploughs ahead with the transition
Not just cars, but heavier vehicles like buses too
This is one of those times where correlation = causation!
It’s been almost 20 years since I’ve eaten beef and here is why
Misc stuff
Love me a good Spinal Tap reference!
Obligatory Trump cartoon(s)
No explanation necessary
The memes after the Trump’s installing himself into the World Cup final were great. I loved this one, but there were many other great ones
No comment needed
Engage
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Finally, since being impacted by the tech layoffs, I'm currently in the market for a new role. If you know someone who could benefit from my tech savvy, sustainability, and strong social media expertise, I'd be really grateful for a referral.
If you have any comments or suggestions for how I can improve this newsletter, don’t hesitate to let me know. Thanks.
*** Be aware that any typos you find in this newsletter are tests to see who is paying attention! ***
And Finally
The best definition I’ve yet come across of libertarians!
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